[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020552
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON AUG 02 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 23N40W TO 8N35W WITH A 1007 MB LOW
NEAR 11N36W. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF HIGH AMPLITUDE
MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS OBSERVED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. BROAD HIGH AMPLITUDE CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL CURVATURE IS
OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS NW
OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 37W-40W. THIS BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED...HOWEVER
SATELLITE MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW DOES NOT YET
HAVE A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CENTER OF CIRCULATION.
NONETHELESS...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. THERE
IS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N58W TO 7N56W MOVING W 5-10 KT.
WEAK CYCLONIC CURVATURE WAS OBSERVED ON THE LAST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE IS NOT DISCERNIBLE ON
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS S OF 12N.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W/83W S OF 18N MOVING W 15-20 KT WITH A
1007 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 11N. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
BROAD AREA OF LOWER SURFACE PRESSURE AND JUST TO THE W OF AN
INVERTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WAVE IS ALSO AT THE LEADING EDGE OF
A MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS OBSERVED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 9N-12N W
OF 82W TO INLAND OVER COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 93W S OF 21N ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE E
PACIFIC REGION MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE LIES JUST TO THE W OF
AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH THAT EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO TO 26N. NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IN THE GULF.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 13N16W 9N24W 8N30W 9N36W 7N41W
9N54W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 27W-28W
WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERING THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 25W-29W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 125 NM S OF THE
ITCZ FROM THE COAST OF W AFRICA TO 24W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE
FROM 7N27W TO 4N38W AND WITHIN 120 NM N AND 75 NM S OF THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 38W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER E OKLAHOMA EXTENDING AN
AXIS SE INTO THE NE GULF 30N87W TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS/CUBA NEAR
22N80W WITH A SECOND WEAKER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SSW OVER
GALVESTON TEXAS TO THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR VERACRUZ. AN UPPER
LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS BETWEEN THESE TWO RIDGES EXTENDING FROM
S MEXICO NEAR 18N92W TO NEAR 26N91W. THIS INVERTED UPPER TROUGH
IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 26N88W TO 23N90W.
A STATIONARY FRONT IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA TO MISSISSIPPI
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER S
GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE NE GULF TO 25N
BETWEEN 83W-87W. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS INLAND AND WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE W COAST OF FLORIDA
BETWEEN NAPLES AND CRYSTAL RIVER. THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL WATERS OF S
MEXICO BETWEEN 92W-95W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN
WITH EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A SMALL UPPER LOW IS MOVING ALONG THE
S COAST OF CUBA NEAR 20N77W WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERING
THE REMAINDER OF THE E CARIBBEAN AND INDUCING AN INVERTED UPPER
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM W PANAMA ACROSS JAMAICA AND JUST TO THE
S OF THE UPPER LOW OVER S CUBA. THIS IS GIVING THE AREA S OF 17N
W OF 73W CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
INLAND OVER COLOMBIA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N
OF 17N BETWEEN 76W-84W. A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC
IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES GIVING THE SE CARIBBEAN
ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 14N E OF 66W ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 27N W OF 70W WITH A
STATIONARY FRONT ENTERING THE REGION FROM A 1012 MB LOW NEAR
32N71W ALONG 29N73W 29N77W THEN NW TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL
GEORGIA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 28N-30N
BETWEEN 75W-80W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLC BASIN N OF 20N E OF 70W ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH WELL N
OF THE AZORES AND RATHER BENIGN UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. THIS IS
MAINTAINING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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