[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN AUG 01 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 22N39W TO 11N36W MOVING W NEAR 15
KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF ENHANCED DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY FROM 5N-28N
BETWEEN 35W-42W. A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR THE SRN EXTENT
OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 10N36W. CLUSTERS OF STRONG CONVECTION HAVE
DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 35W-38W.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 32W-35W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-14N
BETWEEN 38W-43W. DUE TO FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS...THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF FURTHER
ORGANIZATION INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 18N58W TO 10N55W MOVING W NEAR 12
KT. THE WAVE AXIS COINCIDES WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AS
WELL AS A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION HAS
FORMED NEAR THE SRN EXTEND OF THE WAVE FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN
53W-56W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO
FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 55W-58W. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WAVE WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING
THE NEXT 24 HRS.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 20N81W TO 11N82W MOVING W 10-15 KT.
THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF ENHANCED DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE COVERING THE CENTRAL AND WRN CARIBBEAN INDICATED BY
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS
ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND CONFIRMED BY
AN ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS. THE CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL TURNING IS
CONCENTRATED NEAR A 1008 MB LOW CENTERED AS THE SRN EXTENT OF
THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N82W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 79W-83W...FROM 13N-22N BETWEEN
76W-81W...AND FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 81W-85W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 92W FROM 14N-20N MOVING W NEAR 10
KT. THE WAVE FOLLOWS A SMALL SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
PRESENT ACROSS THE SRN BAY OF CAMPECHE INDICATED BY TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE INFLUENCE OF THE WAVE COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY HAVE ENHANCING SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 13N-21N BETWEEN
88W-91W...AND FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 91W-95W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 14N14W 11N24W 12N35W 9N44W 11N56W.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
06N-10N BETWEEN 19W-30W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-10N
BETWEEN 40W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER ERN OKLAHOMA WITH AN AXIS
EXTENDING SE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO NEAR 23N80W...WITH
A SECOND RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SWD ACROSS THE WRN GULF TO NEAR
16N95W. A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS BETWEEN THE
TWO RIDGE AXES COVERING THE CENTRAL GULF EXTENDING FROM SE
LOUISIANA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH
IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE BIG BEND OF
FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL GULF ALONG 31N84W 27N88W 23N92W. SURFACE
CONVERGENCE NEAR THIS TROUGH ALONG WITH SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE NE COAST OF FLORIDA IS ENHANCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 29N BETWEEN 81W-86W...AND FROM
26N-29N BETWEEN 80W-82W. A FEW POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
ALSO IN THE CENTRAL GULF FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 90W-94W. SURFACE
RIDGING IS TO EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH ANCHORED BY A
PAIR OF 1014 MB HIGHS NEAR 26N83W AND 23N96W MAINTAINING MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER. A TROPICAL WAVE JUST W OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR SE BAY
OF CAMPECHE. SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE. A FEW REMNANT
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER CUBA HAVE NOW MOVED
OFFSHORE INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. EXPECT SURFACE RIDGING TO
BUILD ACROSS THE ERN GULF FROM THE W ATLC OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS
AS THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL GULF GETS PUSHED WWD BEFORE
DISSIPATING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL NE FLOW COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH MODERATE
DRY AIR. HOWEVER...A TROPICAL WAVE JUST E OF CENTRAL AMERICA IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM PANAMA TO
JAMAICA. SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE. A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ACROSS ERN CUBA FROM 20N-22N
BETWEEN 76W-80W. AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH COVERS THE SW
CARIBBEAN COLLOCATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE FURTHER ENHANCING
THE CONVECTION NEAR IT. ELSEWHERE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS THE ERN CARIBBEAN EXTENDING
FROM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES
WWD. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES
AS A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE E.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN THE ERN SEABOARD TO NEAR
30N79W IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERING THE DISCUSSION
AREA NEAR 31N71W ALONG 29N76W 31N80W. A SURFACE TROUGH ALSO
EXTENDS FROM 29N75W TO 26N79W ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 29N BETWEEN 68W-71W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE FRONT AND TROUGH. FARTHER E...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES
ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH N OF THE AZORES ISLANDS NEAR 45N29W
MAINTAINING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. ALOFT...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING NEAR 24N61W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE TO
THE SE CENTERED NEAR 18N54W. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED TO THE N NEAR 37N38W WITH RIDING EXTENDING FROM THE
CANARY ISLANDS TO NEAR 17N40W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE
FAR E ATLC CENTERED OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net