[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010541
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN AUG 01 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W TO THE SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST
10 TO 15 KT. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE
NEAR 9N. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
7N TO 10N BETWEEN 33W AND 38W. OTHER STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 7N TO 12N BETWEEN 28W AND 58W.
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 17W AND 20W. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE FEATURE MOVES WESTWARD 5 TO 10 MPH.
THE CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W/56W TO THE SOUTH
OF 19N MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA THAT IS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE 21N45W 11N59W UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 25N30W TO 23N38W TO
A 17N38W CYCLONIC CENTER TO 11N43W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN
48W AND 51W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W/76W FROM JAMAICA
SOUTHWARD...MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THAT IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE PRECIPITATION
THAT COVERS THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER IS PROBABLY MOSTLY RELATED TO THE TROUGH.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN EL SALVADOR JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF GUATEMALA.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE MAURITANIA COAST NEAR 17N17W TO 10N30W 8N36W 10N50W
TO 9N61W AT THE COAST OF VENEZUELA. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 2N TO 10N BETWEEN 32W AND 43W...AND FROM
8N TO 10N BETWEEN 49W AND 51W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA BETWEEN 96W AND
107W...MOSTLY ON TOP OF MEXICO AND A LITTLE BIT IN THE WESTERN
GULF WATERS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER MEXICO FROM 20N
TO 25N BETWEEN 101W AND 106W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF GEORGIA...THROUGH THE EASTERN PART OF THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N86W. NUMEROUS
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE WATERS JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND FROM 29N TO 31N BETWEEN 84W AND
85W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS
FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN 89W AND 93W...IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT FLOW.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE OF NOTE IS THE TROUGH THAT SPANS THE
AREA FROM HISPANIOLA TO A 15N75W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...
TOWARD THE COSTA RICA/PANAMA BORDER. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 72W AND 78W.
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ELSEWHERE FROM THE COASTS OF CUBA AND SOUTHWESTERN HAITI
SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 70W AND SOUTHWESTERN NICARAGUA. A TROPICAL
WAVE IS ALONG 75W/76W FROM JAMAICA SOUTHWARD...MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS
MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN EL SALVADOR JUST TO THE SOUTH OF GUATEMALA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N65W TO 30N67W TO 26N76W.
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 32N70W TO 29N76W AND BEYOND NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
26N75W 29N70W BEYOND BERMUDA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN
BERMUDA FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 01/0000 UTC WAS 1.36 INCHES.
ONE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N53W TO 28N57W TO
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 23N60W TO 19N62W
JUST OUTSIDE THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS.
LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF
30N BETWEEN 27W AND 45W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
A 21N45W CYCLONIC CENTER TO 11N59W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 50W AND 58W. BOTH TROUGHS ARE
SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE FROM 15N TO 30N BETWEEN
37W AND 64W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 70W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

MT





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