[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291103
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU APR 29 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC...

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE SIERRA LEONE COAST NEAR 8N12W TO 6N20W 4N30W
3N40W...CURVING INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 1S53W. STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 2N TO THE COAST OF THE IVORY
COAST BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 4W...AND FROM 6N TO 8N
BETWEEN 15W AND 20W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH
OF 8N BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 60W INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO...AND INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD AND GENTLE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO
THE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 60W AND THE BAHAMAS. UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE-SCALE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS FOUND MOSTLY IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND
COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS
NEAR 28N86W. A RIDGE GOES FROM THE HIGH CENTER TOWARD THE LOWER
TEXAS GULF OF MEXICO COAST. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND IN NORTHERN GUATEMALA.
A SURFACE TROUGH NOW REPLACES THE FORMERLY DISSIPATING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ALONG 30N57W 23N70W...ACROSS CUBA...INTO
THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. A COLD FRONT IS WITHIN 60 NM
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF 23N. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF
26N TO THE EAST OF 90W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 45W AND 51W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING FROM EL SALVADOR
TO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF NICARAGUA...AND MAYBE EVEN INTO
SOUTHERN HONDURAS. THIS PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING IN AN AREA
OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE...DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR WITH HEIGHT...AND
A LINGERING WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FROM TWELVE HOURS AGO THAT HAS
DISSIPATED WITH TIME. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS
THE AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 60W EASTWARD...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N12W TO 24N19W 15N33W
TO 7N48W. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM YESTERDAY AND FROM
TWELVE HOURS AGO HAS WEAKENED AND IT DOES NOT APPEAR ON THIS
SURFACE MAP. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES AROUND A RIDGE
THAT PASSES THROUGH A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 35N29W TO 29N40W 24N46W TO 20N60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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