[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 262316
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON APR 26 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2245 UTC...

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ IS CENTERED FROM CENTRAL LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W ALONG 4N20W
2N30W 1N40W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR THE EQUATOR AND 51W.
ISOLATED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN
21W-26W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS S OF 5N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN
30W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE NE FLORIDA COAST
NEAR 29N81W ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO NEAR FORT MYERS AT 26N82W
CONTINUING OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 24N84W 22N88W. MOST
OF THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE NOW
E OF FLORIDA ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS AND WRN CUBA. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE STILL EVIDENT ON RADAR IMAGERY ACROSS S FLORIDA S OF
26N. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE WRN GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1010 MB HIGH SE OF THE TEXAS COAST NEAR
26N94W. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS DOWN THE ERN CONUS
AND ACROSS THE ERN GULF SUPPORTING THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. DRY AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR.
EXPECT A SECONDARY FRONT TO PUSH QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA
TOMORROW FOLLOWED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO BUILD
ACROSS TEXAS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A SQUALL LINE EXTENDS FROM THE NW BAHAMAS
ACROSS WRN CUBA ALONG 26N78W 23N81W 22N83W CONTINUING AS A
SURFACE TROUGH TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 20N86W. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 100 NM SE OF THE SQUALL
LINE...AND 45 NM NW OF THE LINE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED
IN THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 14N79W ACROSS PANAMA TO NEAR 8N79W.
SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. CLUSTERS OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...AND COSTA RICA ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH IN THE E PACIFIC ALONG 87W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO
NOTED ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS INCLUDING PUERTO RICO
ASSOCIATED WITH ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. ALOFT...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE ERN CONUS REACHES THE WRN
CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING THE SQUALL LINE ACROSS W CUBA. MAINLY WLY
FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN AROUND AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER VENEZUELA. EXPECT CONTINUED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SQUALL LINE...AS WELL AS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT LINES THE SE UNITED STATES
COASTLINE CROSSING N FLORIDA NEAR 29N81W CONTINUING ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. A SQUALL LINE
EXTENDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM THE NW BAHAMAS NEAR 26N78W
TO WRN CUBA NEAR 23N81W. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 150 NM AHEAD...AND WITHIN 45 NM BEHIND THE SQUALL LINE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO FARTHER N OF THE SQUALL LINE N OF 26N
BETWEEN 70W-75W. THE SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN THE ERN CONUS AND OVER THE FAR W ATLC. DRY
AIR AND SUBSIDENCE BUILD BEHIND THE SYSTEM KEEPING CONDITIONS
FAIR ACROSS MUCH OF FLORIDA. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 26N49W. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 60W SUPPORTED THE SURFACE RIDGE. FARTHER E...A
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N27W ALONG 27N31W
22N37W BECOMING STATIONARY TO NEAR 20N42W AND DISSIPATING TO
NEAR 19N46W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE AXIS. THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE AZORES ISLANDS TO NEAR 15N51W. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS TO THE E FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS TO THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA






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