[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 252358
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN APR 25 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC...

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 3N23W 2N44W AND INTO NE BRAZIL
NEAR 2N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN
27W-32W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN
37W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 25/2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE GULF FROM THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION NEAR 30N85W TO 28N89W. A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 30N84W IN THE NE GULF TO THE CENTRAL BAY
OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N94W. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY AND
LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE NE
GULF AND NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA N OF 27N E OF 85W. POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA N OF 24N E OF
89W WITHIN SURFACE TROUGHING OVER THE NE AND CENTRAL GULF. THIS
ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO BE ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT
PATTERN ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE GULF BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
LOCATED OVER THE W ATLC AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ALONG 95W
IN THE WESTERN GULF. A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH IS CLIPPING THE
NW PORTION OF THE GULF AND IS ANALYZED FROM SE LOUISIANA TO NEAR
MATAGORDA BAY. SOUTH OF THIS TROUGHING...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS INTO THE WESTERN GULF TO NEAR 25N92W
PROVIDING FOR CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 15N73W THAT IS PROVIDING
FOR OVERALL UPPER LEVEL STABILITY W OF 66W. AT THE SURFACE...E
TO SE TRADE WINDS DOMINATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
CARIBBEAN WITH ONLY A FEW AREAS OF CONVECTION TO NOTE THIS
EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN S OF 11N W OF 78W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF INLAND
PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. ALSO...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF BELIZE AND WESTERN HONDURAS. THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 66W IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC
NEAR 20N52W TO THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR GRENADA. THIS
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA AND
SAINT KITTS AND NEVIS TO 17N65W IN THE NE CARIBBEAN SEA.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ALONG 72W IN THE W ATLC...UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND COASTAL WATERS N OF
28N W OF 80W. THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC IS CONTROLLED BY A
1018 MB HIGH CENTERED SOUTH OF BERMUDA NEAR 28N64W. FARTHER EAST
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS INTO
THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N41W AND CONTINUES S-SW TO THE
TROPICAL NORTH ATLC NEAR 20N52W AND THEN TO THE SOUTHERN
WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR GRENADA. IT SUPPORTS A SERIES OF FRONTS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC ALL CONNECTED TO SEPARATE PARENT SURFACE
LOWS N OF THE AREA. THE LEADING BOUNDARY FARTHEST EAST IS
ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM 31N36W TO 20N50W TO
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA NEAR 17N62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
300 NM EAST OF THE FRONT N OF 22N WHILE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY S OF 22N. THE SECOND
FRONT IS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N39W TO
23N50W TO 22N60W. THIS FRONT REMAINS LARGELY IN PHASE WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO THE EAST. FINALLY...A THIRD COLD FRONT IS
ANALYZED FROM 31N43W TO 28N52W AND EXHIBITS A STRONGER WIND
FIELD TO THE NW. MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS TO 35 KT ARE NW OF THE
FRONT WITH A RELATIVELY DRIER AIRMASS W OF THE FRONT AS NOTED ON
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN
ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
THE MADEIRA ISLANDS NEAR 33N17W TO 20N35W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net