[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251143
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN APR 25 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC...

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 6N8W 2N21W 3N45W 3N52W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF
SW AFRICA BETWEEN 7W-10W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN
12W-42W AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 7N BETWEEN 46W-56W INCLUDING THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
COVERS THE E HALF OF THE US AND THE NW GULF OF MEXICO NW OF A
LINE FROM PANAMA CITY FLORIDA TO TAMPICO MEXICO. A STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS S LOUISIANA TO ALONG THE COAST
OF TEXAS BETWEEN HOUSTON AND CORPUS CHRISTI. A SURFACE TROUGH
ENTERS THE GULF WATERS OVER SE LOUISIANA NEAR NEW ORLEANS ALONG
25N92W TO OFF THE COAST NEAR VERACRUZ MEXICO. A WEAK 1009 MB
HIGH IS W OF THE TROUGH NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. A BAND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG A LINE FROM 27N88W TO
THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR PANAMA CITY WIDENING TO
WITHIN 45 NM OF A LINE FROM ACROSS FLORIDA AND GEORGIA TO NEAR
COLUMBIA SOUTH CAROLINA. A BROAD HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH THE AXIS ALONG THE
E COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE SW UPPER FLOW IS DRAWING
TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO TO OVER THE GULF GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE FROM 21N96W TO 28N84W.
THIS IS LEAVING THE NW GULF CLEARING THIS MORNING W OF A LINE
FROM MOBILE ALABAMA TO JUST N OF TAMPICO MEXICO.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS ANCHORED IN THE
TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING AN AXIS OVER SOUTH AMERICA OFF COLOMBIA
NEAR 11N75W NW TO CUBA NEAR 22N81W TO OFF THE E COAST OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR
DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN E OF 78W. HOWEVER...THE REMNANTS OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE N LEEWARD
ISLANDS TO 17N64W GENERATING LOW LEVEL SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF
16N E OF 72W TO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS INCLUDING PUERTO RICO
AND HISPANIOLA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE TROPICS AND THE BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC
CONTINUES TO GIVE THE CARIBBEAN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA BANKING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN MAINLY
S OF 10N W OF 75W AND LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
UNDER FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH
BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA NEAR 29N69W. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC WITHIN
300/400 NM OF LINE THROUGH 32N48W TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE
CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N36W EXTENDING SW TO 21N53W WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH CONTINUING TO OVER THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N64W. A
RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT IS TO THE W ENTERING THE REGION NEAR
32N43W TO 26N54W DISSIPATING TO 25N66W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF OF BOTH FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. THE
UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 5N32W EXTENDS
AN AXIS INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 7N52W AND A SECOND N TO
BEYOND 32N28W COVERING THE CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE E AND
CENTRAL ATLC AND PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
150 NM OF LINE FROM 21N48W TO BEYOND 32N31W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALLACE






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