[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241757
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT APR 24 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1750 UTC...

...ITCZ...
AXIS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 2N20W EQ30W 1N40W EQ50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM NORTH AND 100 NM
SOUTH OF THE ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JETSTREAK MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONTINENTAL US SUPPORTING AN UPPER
LEVEL LONGWAVE THAT IS FEEDING A SURFACE 996 MB LOW OVER
ARKANSAS NEAR 35N91. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FROM
THE LOW CENTER ENTERING THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE WESTERN
LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 29N93W AND CONTINUES TO EXTEND THE SAME
DIRECTION TO THE WESTERN GULF COAST NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DEVELOPING WITHIN 80 NM EAST OF THE FRONT. THIS SYSTEM IS
PROGRESSING FAIRLY QUICK. AN AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE IS FOUND
OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF SOUTH OF 22N INCLUDING THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED IN THIS REGION FROM
22N96W SOUTHEASTWARD TO CIUDAD DEL CARMEN. NO CONVECTION IS
FOUND WITHIN THIS FEATURE. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THE COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BRINGING MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
TO THIS REGION NORTH OF 22N.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS COVERS THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN BASIN. THEREFORE...DRY STABLE AIR IS OVER THE BASIN
NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ONLY SCATTERED ISOLATED WEAK TO
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE CAUGHT ON THE RADAR NORTH OF 16N WEST OF
74W INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE US/UK VIRGIN
ISLANDS. THIS AREA OF WEAK SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF A NEAR STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. COMPUTER MODELS
INDICATE THE ACTIVITY IN THIS REGION MAY LINGER THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. WIDE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS KEEPING LIGHT TO
MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ANCHORED BY A
SURFACE 1020 MB HIGH NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 27N71W. THIS
FEATURE IF BRINGING FAIR WEATHER TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NORTH
OF 20N WEST OF 60W. A REMNANT CLOUD/SHEAR LINE IS ANALYZED FROM
23N50W SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG 20N58W TO PUERTO RICO. ISOLATED WEAK
TO MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE.
AN OCCLUDED LOW IS OVER THE WEST/CENTRAL ATLANTIC NORTH OF THE
AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 36N52W. THE SOUTHERN TIP OF A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT RELATED TO THIS LOW ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
32N40W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWEST TO NEAR 28N45W. SCATTER WEAK TO
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 40 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS FRONT.
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THIS FRONT...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED
FROM 30N46W SOUTHWEST ALONG 26N53W TO NEAR 22N60W. SCATTERED
WEAK SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 40 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THIS
TROUGH IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WITH AXIS FROM
22N65W TO 28N50W. ELSEWHERE EAST OF 35W...DRY STABLE AIR
DOMINATES ACROSS THIS REGION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA


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