[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220530
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU APR 22 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0445 UTC...

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM GUINEA NEAR 10N13W ALONG 4N20W
CROSSING THE EQ NEAR 27W TO INLAND BRAZIL NEAR 3S40W 3N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-8N
BETWEEN 10W-13W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-6N
BETWEEN 15W-19W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 32W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT
ANCHORED BY A 1013 MB HIGH NEAR 29N88W KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR
ACROSS THE BASIN. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE GREAT
PLAINS AND THE WRN GULF SUPPORTING THE SURFACE RIDGE. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS TO THE E WITH AXIS JUST E OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE BASIN BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE AND
UPPER TROUGH...WHILE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FLOWS FROM THE E
PACIFIC ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO TO THE WRN GULF SUPPORTING HIGH
CLOUDS. EXPECT THE SURFACE RIDGE TO SHIFT EWD ALLOWING SLY
RETURN FLOW TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WRN GULF AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE FRI.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED ACROSS HONDURAS OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. AS OF 0300 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH IS
ANALYZED IN THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN FROM 20N86W ACROSS HONDURAS TO
13N88W. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE TROUGH IS MOST LIKELY
ENHANCING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS HONDURAS ALONG WITH SLIGHT
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AROUND THE BROAD BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IN THE FAR W ATLC THAT EXTENDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED E
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANCE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FAR W ATLC EXTENDS E OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA SUPPORTING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST
OF N CAROLINA. A SURFACE TROUGH HUGS THE ENTIRE FLORIDA
PENINSULA COASTLINE. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED E OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM E OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES ALONG 50W SUPPORTING A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1016 MB HIGH NEAR 29N56W. HOWEVER...A FRONTAL SYSTEM DISRUPTS
THE RIDGE WITH A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG
32N40W 25N52W TO A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 24N65W CONTINUING TO NE
HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N69W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM E OF
THE FRONT AXIS N OF 27N...AND FROM 21N-30N BETWEEN 50W-65W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT
AXIS S OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER. THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW E OF NEWFOUNDLAND WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 33N28W. ACROSS THE E ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 26N29W PROVIDING
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THAT PORTION OF THE BASIN. THE
SURFACE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY A NARROW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG
20W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





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