[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211723
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED APR 21 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC...

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 4N20W 1N30W EQ50W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-2N BETWEEN 16W-18W...
AND FROM 2S-7S BETWEEN 28W-32W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
COAST OF BRAZIL FROM 2N-2S BETWEEN 46W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1015 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N89W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER AND
LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER
FLORIDA AND THE E GULF ALONG 30N80W 24N83W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA. ELSEWHERE AN AREA OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW
CLOUDS ARE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N W OF 95W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE
GULF PRODUCING MOSTLY WESTERLY FLOW. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS... FOR THE
SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE E TO THE W ATLANTIC WITH SHOWERS. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL ALSO MOVE TO THE NE GULF IN 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND
CENTRAL AMERICA PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADEWINDS. A 1008
MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 7N72W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N VENEZUELA FROM
6N-11N BETWEEN 67W-70W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO
ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA FROM 11N-12N BETWEEN 70W-72W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 77W TO INCLUDE
THE LESSER ANTILLES. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER
THE CARIBBEAN WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG 10N BETWEEN 60W-85W
PRODUCING LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL WINDS. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1015 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA NEAR
34N69W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N44W TO
N OF HISPANIOLA ALONG 25N52W 23N65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 25N. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS S OF
THE FRONT FROM 23N53W TO N OF PUERTO RICO AT 20N66W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH. FURTHER E...A 1020 MB
HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 26N27W PRODUCING FAIR
WEATHER OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N W OF 70W. A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED E OF TRINIDAD NEAR 10N55W.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS BETWEEN 30W-70W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC AND W AFRICA N OF THE EQUATOR E OF 30W.
EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR GULF SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE W
ATLANTIC WITH SHOWERS...AND FOR THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COLD FRONT
TO MOVE E WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

FORMOSA/RAMOS






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