[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210001
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON APR 19 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC...

...THE ITCZ...

FROM 5N10W TO 2N20W 1N30W 1N40W TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 50W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 4N10W
1N30W...THE EQUATOR ALONG 40W TO 3S50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN MEXICO FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...ROUGHLY ALONG 110W. UPPER LEVEL WESTERN
FLOW MOVES FROM INTERIOR MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THE WESTERN FLOW CONTINUES INTO A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT RUNS FROM 30N88W TO 24N93W TO 19N94W IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...TO
SOUTH CENTRAL COASTAL LOUISIANA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
26N94W TO COASTAL MEXICO NEAR 21N98W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM
20N TO 25N BETWEEN 90W AND 98W...BETWEEN 26N82W 22N88W AND 90W
IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN FLORIDA...
RELATED TO A WEAK NORTH-TO-SOUTH ORIENTED TROUGH IN THE CENTER
OF THE STATE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO SOUTHERN HAITI TO 17N74W...CURVING TO
12N78W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN BROAD
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FROM INTERIOR AND COASTAL HONDURAS TO
BELIZE TO THE CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN COASTAL SECTIONS FROM NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA TO NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA...TO
NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA AND ITS BORDER WITH PANAMA...IN A BROAD
AND WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT...AFTERNOON HEATING...AND
UNDER UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
AREA...BEING ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW THAT COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO AT LEAST 30W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE EAST OF
THE LINE FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BEYOND BERMUDA. MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE LARGE-SCALE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. THIS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS A COMBINATION OF THE MERGING WIND
REGIMES...ONE AROUND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TROUGH...AND THE
OTHER ONE AROUND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ANTICYCLONE. A COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH 33N60W TO 30N65W...TO A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N67W...TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR ELEUTHERA
ISLAND AND THEN ANDROS ISLAND...AND EVENTUALLY TO 24N80W IN THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT. A TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS ALONG
24W/25W FROM 10N BEYOND 32N. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS AN EASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N19W TO 30N19W
28N20W 20N30W TO 16N40W. SHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 31N BETWEEN
20W AND 30W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 18N TO 32N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W...AROUND A 1020 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N49W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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