[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181046
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN APR 18 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1040 UTC...

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 2N20W 3N30W 2N40W TO
INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR EQ50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 130 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS
FROM 20W TO 35W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OFF THE
COAST OF LIBERIA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS CROSSING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THIS
FEATURE IS SUPPORTING A MID LEVEL LOW BRINGING MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST BASIN FROM EAST OF
87W AND SOUTH OF 30N. THIS SYSTEM ALSO SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH
ANALYZED ALONG 27N83W 25N84W 23N85W...BRINGING A BROAD AREA OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SOUTH OF 30N FROM 80W TO 88W. DOPPLER
RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS REGION INCLUDING THE STRAIGHTS OF FLORIDA
AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THIS SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY...WHILE THE MID
LEVEL LOW REACHES SURFACE NEAR 27N81W OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS ENTERING THE NORTHWEST BASIN
THROUGH THE TEXAS COASTLINE SUPPORTING CONVECTION OVER THE FAR
WESTERN GULF WEST OF 92W. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO ENTER THROUGH THE SAME REGION WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER
THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS SWINGING ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
AFFECTING THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE BASIN WEST OF 81W.
THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM
CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N79W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BELIZE.
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 70 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE TROUGH. THIS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS ALSO PRODUCING SIMILAR
AREAS OF CONVECTION OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NORTH OF 17N. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS COVERED IN SCATTERED/BROKEN
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS USHERED IN ON THE
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE FAR
WESTERN ATLANTIC WEST OF 70W...SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE TO
HEAVY SHOWERS IN THIS REGION. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE WESTERN/CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A
SURFACE HIGH NEAR 27N57W. THIS FEATURE IS BRINGING FAIR WEATHER
BETWEEN 45W AND 70W. A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET-STREAK IS FOUND
ALONG 25N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPORTING AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT CONTINUES TO FEED A COLD FRONT THAT
ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 32N27W AND EXTENDS SOUTHWEST
ALONG 25N32W 20N40W 16N45W BECOMING STATIONARY TO NEAR 14N60W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT NORTH OF 22N...AND WITHIN 60
NM ON  EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT SOUTH OF 22N. A WEAK 1018 MB
SURFACE HIGH IS IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE CANARY
ISLANDS NEAR 29N16W...BRINGING FAIR WEATHER EAST OF 27W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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