[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171747
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT APR 17 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC...

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 4N20W 4N30W 2N40W EQ50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA
FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 3W. SIMILAR CONVECTION
IS FURTHER W FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 8W-12W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 20W-28W...AND FROM
EQ-5N BETWEEN 40W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR
31N86W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SW
GULF OF MEXICO FROM 23N97W TO 19N94W PRODUCING LITTLE MORE THAN
A WIND SHIFT FOR NOW. SURFACE WINDS OVER THE GULF ARE MOSTLY
5-10 KT FROM THE SE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AND UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CENTERED OVER THE GULF NEAR 23N90W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 89W-92W. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE E OF THE LOW CENTER IS ALSO PRODUCING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION OVER W CUBA AND THE SE GULF FROM 20N-25N
BETWEEN 80W-85W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS...A WEAK COLD FRONT TO BE
ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT IN 24
HOURS...SOME SHOWERS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...AND FURTHER E
OVER THE SE GULF AND S FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1206 UTC WINDSAT PASS SHOWED A SURFACE TROUGH S OF THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL AT 22N86W TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS AT 16N88W PRODUCING A
WIND SHIFT. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OVER W CUBA AND SURROUNDING WATERS W OF 80W MOSTLY DUE TO
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. FURTHER S...SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER COSTA RICA FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN
83W-86W. FURTHER E...A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS FROM 12N64W TO BEYOND 12N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM
12N-14N E OF 65W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF 80W. THE RESULTANT UPPER LEVEL
WIND FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN IS THUS FROM THE SW.
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS ALSO COVERS
MOST OF THE AREA. EXPECT...THE CONVECTION OVER W CUBA TO SHIFT
TO E CUBA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 28N68W PRODUCING
LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC FROM 32N35W TO 26N40W 16N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 27N. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS FROM 15N52W TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AT 12N60W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH. A 1020 MB HIGH
IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 25N24W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N W OF
45W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 10N BETWEEN 25W-45W. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC AND W AFRICA E OF 25W. IN THE
TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 10N52W. EXPECT IN
24 HOURS FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE SOUTHERN
BAHAMAS. ALSO EXPECT THE FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO MOVE QUICKLY E WITH
LIGHT CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



WWWW
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net