[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 162354
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI APR 16 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC...

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N11W 2N20W 1N36W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 45W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1S47W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 08W-23W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 28W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES MUCH OF THE GULF ANCHORED BY A
1023 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE W ATLC NEAR 30N74W AND A 1024 MB
HIGH CENTERED CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA RESULTING IN BRISK
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE GULF N OF 22N. THE SURFACE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND LOCATE OVER THE W ATLC
BY LATE SATURDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SKIRTS THE NORTHERN
WATERS AND COASTAL PLAIN. ELSEWHERE OVER THE SW GULF...A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR
19N90W TO 25N96W. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS COVER THE
AREA FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 88W-96W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS EXTENDING NW FROM THIS AREA TO OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN TEXAS S OF 29N. THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO BE ENHANCED
BY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM
SOUTHERN TEXAS ALONG THE MEXICAN GULF COAST AND INTO THE PACIFIC
REGION ALONG 94W. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVES EASTWARD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND CROSSING THE SW GULF AND YUCATAN
PENINSULA...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAK LOW OR
FRONTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE SE GULF AND WESTERN
CUBA...MERGING WITH THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH BY
LATE SUNDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ALONG 10N DOMINATES MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN. THIS UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW IS MOST PRONOUNCED EAST OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ALONG 94W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT
IS PROVIDING THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 16N W OF 77W THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTHERN
SAINT LUCIA TO NEAR 13N62W WITH TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
INDICATING INCREASED VALUES OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES. PERSISTENT NE WINDS CONTINUE TO FEED ATLC
MOISTURE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE ISLANDS...INCLUDING
PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA WELL NW OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
BOUNDARY. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING TRADES IN
THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE THIS EVENING UNDER GENERALLY FAIR SKIES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 30N74W THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO. MOSTLY FAIR SKIES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE...HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN
EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE CENTRAL AND NW BAHAMAS AS
WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS EVENING.
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND SUPPORTS A SERIES OF
BOUNDARIES EXTENDING INTO THE AREA. A COLD FRONT ENTERS NEAR
32N43W TO A 1008 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 23N48W THEN CONTINUES AS A
SURFACE TROUGH TO A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 17N57W THEN ACROSS SOUTHERN
SAINT LUCIA AND INTO THE SE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 200 NM EAST OF THE COLD FRONT AND WITHIN 200 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC. A
SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH IS NW OF THE LEADING COLD FRONT AND
EXTENDS FROM 32N51W TO 29N63W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THIRDLY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAINLY
REMAINS NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA BUT CLIPS A PORTION FROM
32N55W ALONG 31N TO BERMUDA NEAR 32N65W. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUES MOVING SE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. FARTHER EAST...A 1016 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 26N33W AND
EXTENDS SURFACE RIDGING AND GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC...INCLUDING THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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