[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 152352
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU APR 15 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC...

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N08W 2N20W 5N45W AND INTO FRENCH
GUIANA NEAR 5N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 12W-16W AND FROM THE EQUATOR
TO 5N BETWEEN 27W-33W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS INLAND AND WITHIN 90 NM OF THE SOUTH AMERICA COAST
BETWEEN 51W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM A
1030 MB HIGH CENTERED OFFSHORE OF SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 33N80W.
THIS IS RESULTING IN A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG SE
WINDS UP TO 30 KT FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN WATERS
THIS EVENING. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH REMAINS
POSITIONED OVER THE WESTERN GULF WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE
BIG BEND REGION OF TEXAS NEAR 29N103W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
NEAR 21N90W. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE CONTINUES TO ENHANCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE CENTRAL GULF FROM
23N-26N BETWEEN 86W-95W. THIS ACTIVITY ALSO STRETCHES SE OVER
THE NE PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ACROSS THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN
WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CUBA OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TO THE SE CONUS. AS THE HIGH SETTLES INTO THE W ATLC
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...E TO SE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DEEP LAYER TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE W ATLC.
A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 20N60W
AND EXTENDS A SURFACE TROUGH INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH THE
GUADELOUPE PASSAGE SW TO NEAR 14N67W. BRISK NE WINDS WEST OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUE TO FEED ATLC MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN
HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 15N E OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
NEAR 20N74W. THIS PATTERN OF NE WINDS IS LIKELY TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFFSHORE OF THE
CAROLINAS SETTLES WELL INTO THE W ATLC BY LATE SATURDAY.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE ALSO NOTED EXTENDING INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL N OF 17N W OF 80W. ALOFT...MAINLY SOUTHWESTERLY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS A LARGE PORTION OF THE BASIN ASSOCIATED
WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 7N44W IN THE
DEEP TROPICS NW TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N72W. THIS
CONTINUES TO ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER NORTHERN
VENEZUELA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS IN THE SE CARIBBEAN S
OF 13N E OF 74W THIS EVENING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
NEAR 33N80W THAT IS PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER UNDER NE TO
E WINDS W OF 62W. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE SE CONUS ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TO EASTERN CUBA. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IMPACTS THE
CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A 1010 MB LOW NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
NEAR 20N60W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM WELL NORTH OF THE LOW
ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N51W AND CONTINUING ALONG
27N52W 23N57W TO THE LOW AND THROUGH THE GUADELOUPE PASSAGE NEAR
16N62W. A LARGE AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS COVERS THE AREA
FROM 15N-26N BETWEEN 47W-62W AND WITHIN 180 NM EAST OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH N OF 26N. THIS FRONTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
DRIFT EASTWARD AND LOCATE ROUGHLY ALONG 50W BY LATE FRIDAY.
FARTHER EAST...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 37W AND
CONTINUES TO PROVIDE GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER N OF 13N BETWEEN
20W-45W. THE NE PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS IMPACTED BY AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW WEST OF PORTUGAL NEAR 39N14W THAT SUPPORTS A 988
MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 36N15W. GLOBAL MODEL DATA INDICATES
WINDS GREATER THAN 20 KT ARE PRIMARILY LOCATED N OF 27N E OF
25N...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM FOUND WITHIN THE DISCUSSION AREA. ACROSS THE TROPICAL
ATLC...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 7N FROM
WESTERN AFRICA TO EASTERN VENEZUELA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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