[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 142352
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED APR 14 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC...

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N11W 3N27W 3N42W AND INTO NE BRAZIL
NEAR 2N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
WEST AFRICA COAST AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN
07W-13W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM NORTH OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 13W-21W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
240 NM NORTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 23W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A
1035 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLC COAST NEAR 39N77W. AS
THIS RIDGE MOVES AND PRESSES SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN U.S.
SEABOARD...AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF N OF 22N
IS PROVIDING FOR INCREASED EASTERLY WINDS UP TO 30 KT THIS
EVENING. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS SE TO
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 21N86W. INCREASED LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY
AND THE UPPER LEVEL AXIS ARE PROVIDING FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE GULF
FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 85W-95W. THIS AREA ALSO EXTENDS TO THE NW
ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST FROM NORTH OF BROWNSVILLE TO
MATAGORDA BAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING
GENERALLY FAIR SKIES WITH OVERALL DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO NEAR
18N84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN N OF 18N W OF 81W...INCLUDING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA. FARTHER EAST...A 1012 MB LOW
CENTERED OFFSHORE OF NE HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N68W IS GIVING THE NE
CARIBBEAN LIGHT SE WINDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS NE OF A LINE FROM
SAINT LUCIA TO EASTERN HISPANIOLA. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY HAS CONTINUED TO INDICATE INCREASED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN AND THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC FOR THE PAST
FEW OF DAYS WITH GUADELOUPE REPORTING 2.85 INCHES OF
PRECIPITATION AND SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO REPORTING 1.21 INCHES OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS REGION OF SURFACE
TROUGHING EXTENDS NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLC AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING MODERATE TRADEWINDS
AND SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALOFT WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 13N BETWEEN 64W-75W AS CONVECTION MOVES
N-NE OFF THE NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA COAST THIS EVENING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR BERMUDA AND
EXTENDS WESTWARD ALONG 31N TO 78W. LACKING ANY SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE OR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS WHILE A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED OVER THE MID-ATLC STATES BUILDS SOUTHWARD. AS A
RESULT...CONTINUED NE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE AND PERSIST
W OF 60W THROUGH FRIDAY. SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND A CENTRAL ATLC SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
IS AN ELONGATED AREA OF SURFACE TROUGHING DELINEATED BY A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 32N60W TO EASTERN HISPANIOLA NEAR
19N68W. CONVERGENT SE WINDS EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AS WELL
AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN THE WAY OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
ALONG 62W DIPPING SOUTHWARD TO 29N IS PROVIDING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS COVERING A LARGE AREA FROM 16N TO BEYOND 32N BETWEEN
48W-62W. A WEAK 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 19N68W AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GFS AND ECMWF MODEL
GUIDANCE ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AT LEAST A FRONTAL
TROUGH OR WEAK LOW POSITIONING ITSELF IN THE VICINITY OF 22N50W
BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. FARTHER EAST...A 990 MB LOW IS CENTERED SW OF
PORTUGAL NEAR 37N16W AND EXTENDS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE LOW
ALONG 32N13W ACROSS THE EASTERN CANARY ISLANDS TO 21N23W. THIS
SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 35N20W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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