[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120542
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON APR 12 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND GOES-12 SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0315 UTC AND METEOSAT-7 IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC...

...THE ITCZ...
FROM COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 6N11W TO 2N20W...NEAR THE EQUATOR
ALONG 30W...2N45W...INTO NORTHEASTERN COASTAL BRAZIL NEAR
THE EQUATOR ALONG 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 1N TO 3N BETWEEN 30W AND 37W...
FROM 2N TO 3N BETWEEN 40W AND 41W...WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS
OF 1N44W...AND FROM 1S TO 1N BETWEEN 45W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN...ACROSS MEXICO...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE FLOW BECOMES
ANTICYCLONIC TO THE SOUTH OF 23N TO THE WEST OF 95W. THE REST
OF THE FLOW CONTINUES TO BE UNAFFECTED BY ANYTHING ELSE.
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO WHICH THE LAST MIATWDAT REFERS HAS
EXITED THE REGION...NOW MOVING ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. A REMNANT
CLOUD LINE/SHEAR AXIS AT THE SURFACE CUTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS...TO THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST BETWEEN 25N AND
26N...AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N86W.. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM 22N TO 27N. THE SURFACE WIND FLOW IS LARGELY FROM
THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 58W/59W FROM 11N TO 17N. SHOWERS
ARE NEAR THE TROUGH FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 55W AND 61W.
IT IS EASILY POSSIBLE THAT PRECIPITATION ALREADY MAY BE
REACHING THE EASTERN SHORES OF THE SAINT LUCIA TO GUADELOUPE.
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS
PASSING OVER THE BAHAMAS AT THIS TIME REACHES THE SOUTHERN
BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA. SHOWERS AROUND THE TROUGH COVER THE
AREAS FROM 16N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 22N IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO 30N62W TO 28N69W.
A REMNANT CLOUD LINE/SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 28N69W TO
28N74W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...TO THE SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA COAST BETWEEN 25N AND 26N...AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR 24N86W. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ON TOP OF THE
BAHAMAS. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 22N...AND TO THE
NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG
52W/53W FROM 20N TO 30N. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS
EVIDENT. DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
IS CONNECTED TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY THAT IS NEAR 36N26W. A 1004 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
NEAR 36N24W. CYCLONIC FLOW ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS THE
AREA TO THE NORTH OF 13N TO THE EAST OF 42W. A COLD FRONT
EVENTUALLY EMANATES FROM THE 1004 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER...FROM
32N20W TO 28N20W 24N24W AND 24N28W. THE COLD FRONT DISSIPATES
FROM 24N28W TO 23N35W. A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH IS WITHIN
140 NM TO 200 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT FROM 25N TO 30N.
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT BUT NOT DIRECTLY
EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

MT




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