[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111718
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN APR 11 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC...

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N9W 3N20W 1N47W INTO NE BRAZIL
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1N50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 200 NM BOTH SIDES OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN
12W-23W AND WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM ACROSS THE EQUATOR NEAR 3W
TO 2N7W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
3N-7N BETWEEN 46W-49W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM
3N W OF 48W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH
OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WITH A WEAKNESS ALONG A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
BETWEEN MELBOURNE TO FORT MYERS INTO THE GULF JUST W OF KEY WEST
TO 24N83W. A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING
THIS SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEAR TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA TO
THE NW CUBAN COAST NEAR HAVANA. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS
DOMINATED BY NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. BROKEN/OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE FROM ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR NAPLES TO 25N86W
THEN WITHIN 200 NM OF LINE FROM 24N90W TO OVER TEXAS/NE MEXICO
NEAR THE BORDER. A SWATH OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM W CUBA NEAR 23N84W TO
OVER LOUISIANA...THUS THE LACK OF SHOWERS THERE. THE SHORT WAVE
UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GULF LATER
THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED N OF AREA WILL
STRENGTHEN ON MON AND INCREASE EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO IS
MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
AIR ALOFT DOMINATE THE ENTIRE BASIN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND COUPLED WITH THE TRADE WINDS ARE
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTTING THE CARIBBEAN E OF 77W. THE
TRADE WINDS ARE ALSO BANKING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN INLAND ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND
WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST OF W PANAMA AND COSTA RICA W OF
81W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1030
MB HIGH JUST OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA AND A 1031 MB HIGH
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 37N46W. A SURFACE TROUGH FORMS A
WEAKNESS INT HE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 30N79W ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR MELBOURNE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A COLD
FRONT BRIDGES THE SURFACE RIDGE ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N61W
TO 29N66W BECOMING STATIONARY TO 28N71W. THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR
THIS FRONT IS AN UPPER TROUGH N OF 22N FROM 54W-65W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE COVER THE W ATLC
N OF 25N W OF 70W TO OVER FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE E
ATLC NEAR 32N22W EXTENDING ALONG 29N24W TO 25N33W BECOMING
STATIONARY TO 25N39W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM SE OF
THE FRONT. THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR THIS FRONT IS N OF 26N FROM THE
CANARY ISLANDS TO 36W AND THE UPPER LOW JUST S OF THE AZORES.
THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS OF THE CARIBBEAN ARE ALSO IN THE
TROPICAL ATLC MAINLY N OF 15N W OF 53W AND ARE GENERATING
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS FROM 13N-19N W OF 54W ACROSS THE
LESSER ANTILLES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALLACE







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