[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 092340
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI APR 09 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC...

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N8W 3N22W 4N39W IN47W TO INLAND
OVER BRAZIL SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1N50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE ITCZ BETWEEN 19W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 09/2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE GULF ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA S OF NAPLES EXTENDING ALONG 24N84W TO 23N86W
WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 23N89W THEN S TO OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N90W CONTINUING S TO JUST E OF THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS SE
OF THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE W COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 25N81W
THROUGH THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS TO JUST N OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
NEAR 22N86W. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM FORT MYERS FLORIDA TO
23N91W THEN WITHIN 120 NM OF A LINE TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO NEAR
18N93W. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTING THIS FRONT IS MOVING
OFF THE E US INTO THE W ATLC COVERING THE NE GULF OF MEXICO N OF
26N E OF 87W AND CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD. MODERATE TO STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ARE OVER THE E GULF LIMITING
SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE GULF WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.
WEAK UPPER RIDGE IS OVER MEXICO BRINGING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TO
THE W GULF WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 25N W OF 93W TO INLAND
OVER TEXAS. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT OVER
THE N GULF ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA
OF LOUISIANA. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE E OF THE GULF
WATERS TONIGHT WHILE THE STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE LATER TONIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC IS GIVING THE
CARIBBEAN MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. NEAR ZONAL
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT. AN ABUNDANCE OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN GENERATING BROKEN/
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 15N E
OF 66W ACROSS WINDWARD ISLANDS AND INTO THE W TROPICAL ATLC.
BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF
14N TO OVER HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 68W-73W. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN IS ENJOYING FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 09/2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC THROUGH
32N75W EXTENDING SSW TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA JUST N OF
WEST PALM BEACH TO OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO JUST S OF NAPLES.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTING THIS FRONT IS MOVING OFF THE E
US INTO THE W ATLC N OF 26N W OF 72W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ARE W OF THE FRONT CLEARING SKIES BEHIND
THE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC AND INTO THE E ATLC BETWEEN 23W-70W
ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 32N56W PRODUCING STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND GIVING THE AREA FAIR WEATHER AGAIN THIS
EVENING. THE REMNANTS OF A STATIONARY FRONT REMAIN IN THE E ATLC
EXTENDING THROUGH 32N27W TO 20N35W WITH NO ASSOCIATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY AND THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT REMAINS N OF THE REGION. A
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN THE TROPICS EXTENDING FROM 16N43W
14N52W TO BARBADOS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH AND ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS INTO THE SE
CARIBBEAN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALLACE





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