[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 081726
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU APR 08 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1645 UTC...

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE SIERRA LEONE/LIBERIA COAST NEAR 7N11W TO 3N20W 1N30W...
CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 35W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR
4S43W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 3N20W 3N30W 5N35W 2N41W
1N50W. A SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS JUST OUTSIDE THE ITCZ IS ALONG
34W/35W TO THE SOUTH OF 8N. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4N TO 5N BETWEEN 33W
AND 36W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE U.S.A. MIDWEST. THE
TROUGH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING THROUGH
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INTO
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE TEXAS BORDER.
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N91W NEAR THE COLD FRONT TO
24N93W TO A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS IN THE ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 300 NM TO THE WEST OF 20N96W
24N90W BEYOND 30N93W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE FROM
SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA TO 13N70W BEYOND 17N60W. UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT ORIGINATES IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA IS DEFLECTED TO THE
NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE CYCLONIC FLOW. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN SOUTHWESTERN HAITI AND EASTERN JAMAICA...FROM PANAMA TO
10N BETWEEN 81W AND 83W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 16N TO THE EAST OF
73W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
THAT HAS BEEN SUPPORTING THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
INDISTINCT TO THE SOUTH OF 32N. IT STILL MUST BE MORE EVIDENT
TO THE NORTH OF 32N. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CUTS
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE SOUTH
OF 19N60W 21N50W 21N40W 26N30W BEYOND 32N27W. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE GOES FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO 25N24W BEYOND 32N19W.
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N28W TO 26N30W 22N34W TO 19N42W.
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 19N42W TO 16N50W TO JUST NORTH
OF BARBADOS NEAR 13N61W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MIDDLE LEVEL AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. LOW
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
14N60W 16N50W 19N40W 23N33W...AND WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 23N33W 26N31W BEYOND 32N28W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AS FAR TO
THE WEST AS 73W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE WEST OF 45W...MOVING
AROUND A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N64W.
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE EAST OF THE STATIONARY
FRONT...MOVING AROUND A RIDGE THAT IS THROUGH 32N20W
TO 27N22W 18N27W TO 14N40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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