[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 062357
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE APR 06 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC...

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N5W 3N11W 2N21W 1N29W 2N42W TO
INLAND OVER BRAZIL SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IN THE FORM OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
EXTENDS FROM 3N1W 2N6W TO 4N10W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION
ARE FROM 4N-7N E OF 14W TO JUST INLAND OVER LIBERIA AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE GULF WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING
FROM A 1023 MB HIGH IN THE W ATLC ALONG THE N GULF COAST TO THE
LOUISIANA/TEXAS BORDER WITH SE TO S SURFACE WINDS OVER THE GULF
WATERS. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH NEAR 28N85W TO
OVER THE E US ALONG THE GEORGIA/ALABAMA BORDER WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF. A
BAND OF LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE IN THE W
GULF WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 24N96W TO 29N94W...THUS LEAVING
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS EVENING. A
STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST WED
EVENING AND MOVE SE OF THE AREA BY FRI NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC AND GULF OF MEXICO IS GIVING
THE CARIBBEAN MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS GIVING THE NW CARIBBEAN NW FLOW
ALOFT AND A SECOND RIDGE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC IS GIVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SW FLOW ALOFT. MODERATE TO STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT COVERS MOST OF THE BASIN. AN
ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
GENERATING PATCHES OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH
POSSIBLE SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY SW OF A LINE FROM HAITI TO
HONDURAS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 55W INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 29N72W PRODUCING STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND GIVING THE AREA FAIR WEATHER AGAIN THIS
EVENING. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
WITH THE UPPER LOW NEAR 31N48W AND SUPPORTING A 1005 MB SURFACE
LOW NEAR 32N40W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1005 MB SURFACE
LOW NEAR 32N42W INTO THE REGION ALONG 29N42W TO 29N47W WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS ALSO
SUPPORTING A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH TO THE E ENTERING THE REGION
NEAR 32N34W EXTENDING SW ALONG 21N43W TO 21N48W TO JUST E OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 14N58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE EASTERN MOST
SURFACE TROUGH N OF 20N. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC
EXTENDING FROM A 1021 MB HIGH W OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS NEAR
33N20W TO 22N31W GIVING THE E ATLC FAIR WEATHER AGAIN THIS
EVENING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALLACE





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