[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060551
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE APR 06 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0550 UTC...

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST OF LIBERIA
NEAR 5N9W...WESTWARD ALONG 3N20W 2N30W 1N40W TO NORTHEAST BRAZIL
NEAR EQ50W. MODERATE CONVECTION IS FOUND WITHIN 50 NM OFF THE
COAST OF LIBERIA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 18W AND 28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE GULF CONTINUES TO BE INFLUENCED BY A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE FAR WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 32N75W. THIS
FEATURE IS BRINGING SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
BASIN. THEREFORE...STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND AND DRY STABLE AIR
ALOFT IS OBSERVED OVER MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT FOR AN AREA OF
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE WESTERN GULF
COAST...FROM VERACRUZ MEXICO TO GALVESTON TEXAS. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONSTANT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS THE
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE FAR WESTERN ATLANTIC WOBBLES NEAR 30N75W.
THEN...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NORTHWEST
BASIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MARINE OBSERVATIONS SHOW FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. AN ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS
CENTRAL AMERICA GENERATING AN AREA OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM OFF
THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. SAME CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 100
NM OFF THE COAST OF BRAZIL AND COLOMBIA. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY STRONG SUBSIDENCE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS LOOK FOR THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF 14N.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE FAR WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR
32N75W PRODUCING STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WEST. THIS HIGH IS EXPECTED TO WOBBLE NEAR ITS
CENTER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...KEEPING THE FAIR WEATHER IN THIS
REGION. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
SUPPORTING A 1005 MB OCCLUDED LOW NEAR 32N45W. THIS LOW IS
PRODUCING A SURFACE TROUGH 250 NM EAST OF THE LOW EXTENDING FROM
34N43W TO 29N42W. THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH ALSO SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N35W AND EXTENDS
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ALONG 25N40W 20N45W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 80 NM EAST OF THE FRONT NORTH OF 24N. ELSEWHERE EAST OF
34E...A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC NEAR
32N20W...KEEPING FAIR WEATHER EAST OF 25W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS
FOR THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD WITH
SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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