[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051058
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON APR 05 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC...

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 4N20W 2N30W 1N40W INTO
NORTHEAST BRAZIL NEAR 1S48W. AREAS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION ARE EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ BETWEEN 14W AND 38W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE GULF CONTINUES TO BE INFLUENCED BY A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE FAR WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 32N75W. THIS
FEATURE IS BRINGING SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
BASIN. THEREFORE...FAIR WEATHER IS OBSERVED OVER MOST OF THE
REGION EXCEPT FOR AN AREA OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITHIN 90 NM
ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST...FROM VERACRUZ MEXICO TO GALVESTON
TEXAS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONSTANT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS...AS THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE FAR WESTERN ATLANTIC
WOBBLES NEAR 30N75W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MARINE OBSERVATIONS SHOW FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BROKEN TO OVERCAST
LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL
BASIN FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 71W AND 75W...AND WITHIN 200 NM
OFF THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY STRONG SUBSIDENCE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS LOOK FOR THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF 14N.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE FAR WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR
32N75W PRODUCING STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WEST OF 58W. THIS HIGH IS EXPECTED TO WOBBLE NEAR ITS
CENTER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...KEEPING THE FAIR WEATHER IN THIS
REGION. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
SUPPORTING A 1004 MB OCCLUDED LOW NEAR 32N48W. THIS LOW IS
MERGING WITH A SECONDARY LOW NEAR 38N43W. A COLD FRONT FROM THE
SECONDARY LOW ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N39W AND EXTENDS
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ALONG 25N44W 20N48W 15N57W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT NORTH OF 24N. BEHIND THIS
FRONT...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 32N45W TO 26N50W.
SCATTER SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 40 NM OF THE TROUGH. ELSEWHERE EAST
OF 34E...A 1032 MB HIGH IS OVER SPAIN...KEEPING FAIR WEATHER
OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT
TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA


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