[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011039
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU APR 01 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC...

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N8W 3N14W 3N38W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 50W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 6W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF ANCHORED BY A
1022 MB HIGH NEAR 27N84W. AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS FROM
THE W ATLC ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS TO 24N93W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND VERY DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT COVER ALL THE GULF WITH A LARGE
UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE SE US ANCHORED OVER N ALABAMA. RETURN
FLOW IS BRINGING BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS N OF 26N W OF 91W TO
OVER LOUISIANA AND TEXAS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES REMAIN ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF AGAIN THIS MORNING. THE NEXT FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW GULF FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE
OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE N COAST OF
COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N W OF 74W TO INLAND CENTRAL
AMERICA AND COLOMBIA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAINING OVER HAITI
AND THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL WATERS WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN HAS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. THE FIRST
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A LAYER OF DRY SAHARAN AIR AND DUST
COVERING THE TROPICAL ATLC S OF 20N INTO THE E CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE W ATLC TO 70W INCLUDING THE BAHAMA
ISLANDS ANCHORED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A STATIONARY FRONT
ENTERS THE REGION E OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N58W EXTENDING ALONG
25N63W JUST E OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS TO THE NW COAST OF HAITI
NEAR 20N73W. THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTING THIS FRONT IS N OF 25N
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WELL N OF BERMUDA. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS N ACROSS TRINIDAD ALONG
25N53W TO BEYOND 32N51W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO CONTINUE
TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 26N BETWEEN 50W AND THE FRONT. A WEAK 1017 MB
HIGH IS TO THE E OF THE FRONT NEAR 25N55W. A 1010 MB LOW IS IN
THE E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 27N38W AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM THE LOW ALONG 28N32W ALONG 22N36W TO 19N48W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 25N-31N
BETWEEN 29W-37W. THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THIS FRONT IS N OF
21N BETWEEN 25W-45W WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 28N38W. A
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 23N E OF 30W ANCHORED BY A
1027 MB HIGH OVER THE AZORES. THE FIRST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A
LAYER OF DRY SAHARAN AIR AND DUST COVERING THE TROPICAL ATLC S
OF 20N INTO THE E CARIBBEAN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALLACE






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