[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 290555
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND...GOES-12 SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC AND METEOSAT-8 IMAGERY THROUGH
0530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W/43W TO THE SOUTH
OF 15N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. IT IS NOT EASY TO FIND
PRECIPITATION THAT JUST ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W TO THE SOUTH OF 17N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN
WESTERN HONDURAS AND EL SALVADOR MAY BE OR MAY NOT BE RELATED
TO THIS WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM 11N15W 7N22W TO 10N39W 8N50W 9N56W INTO NORTHEASTERN
VENEZUELA NEAR 8N61W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 36W AND 40W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 6N TO 8N WITHIN 30 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 13W...FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 22W AND 24W...
AND WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 8N43W 8N50W 12N56W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE U.S.A. AND
THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 24N TO THE EAST OF 90W.
THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES ON TOP OF THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 27N78W...ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N85W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 22N TO 28N.
A SECOND COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS AND 48 HOURS...AND TO BECOME STATIONARY IN THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO AT 72 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE DEEP LAYER ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH PASSES
ON TOP OF THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO 13N77W AND 13N84W
IN NORTHEASTERN COASTAL NICARAGUA. THE TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS
NICARAGUA TO HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA...TO THE UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS MOVING ACROSS COASTAL MEXICO THAT IS
JUST TO THE WEST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN EL SALVADOR AND IN WESTERN HONDURAS.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W TO THE SOUTH OF 16N...MOVING THROUGH
THE SAME AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS SPREADING BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE
EAST OF THE TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
AREA TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TROUGH...TO THE NORTH OF 17N
TO THE WEST OF JAMAICA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE U.S.A...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 24N
BETWEEN 70W AND 90W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N70W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 27N78W...
ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N85W.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 28N TO
29N BETWEEN 70W AND 73W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS COVER THE
BAHAMAS AND SURROUNDING WATERS FROM 24N TO 27N BETWEEN 75W AND
79W. A DEEP LAYER CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
32N30W TO 28N44W TO A 29N54W CYCLONIC CENTER...TO 30N60W
27N63W...ACROSS THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N33W TO 29N44W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM TO 180 NM TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 40W AND 67W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM 22N37W TO 10N45W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 38W AND 40W...AND FROM 10N TO
16N BETWEEN 35W AND 40W. UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO THE EAST OF THIS
TROUGH IS SHEARING THE FEW NEARBY CLOUD TOPS. A SURFACE TROUGH
THAT IS THE REMNANT OF T.D. EIGHT IS ALONG 45W/46W FROM 15N TO
21N. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 46W AND
48W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N11W...SKIRTING THE NORTHERN COAST OF
THE WESTERN SAHARA...TO 19N20W. NO SURFACE FRONT OR TROUGH IS
ACCOMPANIES THIS TROUGH.

$$
MT


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