[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281741
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W TO THE SOUTH OF 14N
MOVING WEST AT 20 KT. INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVE ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. ALSO SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER MAXIMUM IS
NOTED. SAHARAN DUST COVERS THE AREA N OF 13N AND E OF 40W
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
E OF THE WAVE AXIS HOWEVER FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 30W-39W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 84W/85W SOUTH OF
18N MOVING WEST 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 78W-83W.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N14W 7N20W 11N30W 14N40W 8N60W.
BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 15W-19W. CLUSTERS OF
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM
11N13N BETWEEN 55W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1017 MB HIGH IS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR 27N87W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA ALONG 28N80W 27N84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S OF
THE FRONT OVER S FLORIDA FROM 25N-27N BETWEEN 80W-83W. MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE N GULF N
OF 28W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER W CUBA NEAR 21N83W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT...SURFACE RIDGING
OVER THE GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT RETURN FLOW
CONVECTION OVER THE NW GULF AND TEXAS...WITH FAIR WEATHER OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. SEE ABOVE. FRESH TO
STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 72W-80W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF 15N. MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND
CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF
THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 20N67W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN N OF THE LINE 20N70W 13N84W. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN E OF THE LINE HAS CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE.
EXPECT...CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE S
CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N72W 28N81W. A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS ALONG 29N74W 26N79W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE TROUGH TO INCLUDE
THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 25N52W. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N35W 29N40W 28N48W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS E OF THE FRONT FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 32W-36W. A
SURFACE TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF T.D. EIGHT IS OVER THE TROPICAL
CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 24N43W 17N43W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WELL
E OF THE AXIS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 28N62W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF
THE CENTER IS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 59W-61W. ANOTHER SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED FURTHER E NEAR 28N53W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 47W-57W. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND E OF 30W. TWO UPPER
LEVEL HIGHS ARE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 12N56W AND
13N23W.

$$
FORMOSA



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