[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 271800
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W/28W S OF 15N MOVING W 15 KT.
INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVE ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.
ALSO SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER MAXIMUM IS NOTED. SAHARAN
DUST COVERS THE AREA N OF 13N AND E OF 37W SUPPRESSING
CONVECTION. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS HOWEVER FROM
6N-8N BETWEEN 28W-31W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W/77W S OF 18N MOVING W 20 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE
WAVE AXIS FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 79W-83W.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N15W 14N28W 7N40W 11N62W.
CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN
12W-16W...FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 27W-31W...AND FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN
35W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1014 MB HIGH IS OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 29N93W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER N FLORIDA
AND THE NE GULF ALONG 32N82W 29N85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S OF
THE TROUGH OVER FLORIDA FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 81W-83W. ANOTHER
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SW GULF AND S MEXICO ALONG 21N95W
17N94W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST FROM
19N-22N BETWEEN 96W-98W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
IS OVER THE W GULF NEAR 24N98W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS E TO S
FLORIDA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE GULF S OF 28N.
EXPECT...SURFACE RIDGING AND MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. FRESH TO
STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM
9N-13N BETWEEN 60W-64W. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 60W-67W. PATCHES OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE ALSO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO
GUATEMALA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
S OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N70W. EXPECT...CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG
32N46W 29N50W 28N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
26N-32N BETWEEN 43W-48W. A 1019 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 24N55W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS FURTHER E ALONG 23N37W
15N39W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WELL E OF THE AXIS. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N
AND W OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR
26N61W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 26N-32N BETWEEN
47W-51W. ZONAL FLOW IS N OF 20N AND E OF 55W TO W AFRICA. TWO
UPPER LEVEL HIGHS ARE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 14N50W AND
17N23W.

$$
FORMOSA





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