[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 261728
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT IS CENTERED NEAR 18.0N 34.8W AT
26/1500 UTC OR ABOUT 725 MILES...1170 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING WNW AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30
KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
SCATTERED MODERATE WITH EMBEDDED CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 31W-34W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. AN
INVERTED-V LOW CLOUD PATTERN IS NOTED WITH SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 22W-26W. A NEW
PLUME OF SAHARAN DUST AND DRY AIR IS N OF THE WAVE TO INCLUDE
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM 15N-25N E OF 35W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 67W S OF 18N MOVING
W NEAR 15 KT. AN INVERTED-V LOW CLOUD PATTERN IS NOTED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN
60W-70W.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 8N25W 12N36W 9N50W 8N60W.
BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED ON THE SPECIAL FEATURES AND
TROPICAL WAVE SECTIONS...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
8N-12N BETWEEN 45W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN LOUISIANA NEAR 30N92W
TO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 27N97W 23N97W 19N94W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE FRONT FROM 21N-24N
BETWEEN 95W-99W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE W OF THE
FRONT TO THE COAST. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE
NE GULF NEAR 28N85W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER
TEXAS AND THE W GULF W OF 95W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF. EXPECT...THE STATIONARY FRONT TO
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND A NEW COLD FRONT TO MOVE
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STATES.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. FRESH TO
STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN S OF 13N W OF 77W. PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE ALSO INLAND OVER N NICARAGUA... HONDURAS...AND
GUATEMALA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N71W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER IF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT...CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT
CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N76W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS FURTHER E ALONG 30N63W 23N71W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W OF 70W. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 26N61W. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 26N-32N BETWEEN 47W-51W. ZONAL FLOW IS
N OF 20N AND E OF 55W TO W AFRICA. TWO UPPER LEVEL HIGHS ARE
OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 14N50W AND 17N23W. EXPECT T.D.
EIGHT AND THE ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE TO BE WEAK FEATURES OVER
THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA







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