[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260517
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT IS CENTERED NEAR 17.4N 32.3W AT
26/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 490 NM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING
NW AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE
THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN
31W-34W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE
HAS MOVED INTO AN AREA OF RATHER DRY STABLE AIR WITH MODERATELY
STRONG UPPER W TO SW WINDS LIMITING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY OR
CONVECTION.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N12W 6N23W 13N32W 9N45W 6N61W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ E OF 16W TO THE COAST OF W AFRICA...
WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ FROM 48W-50W...AND WITHIN
60 NM OF LINE FROM 14N38W TO 11N42W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR
ACTIVITY ARE FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 31W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS OVER THE W GULF ENTERING OVER
LOUISIANA JUST W OF VERMILION BAY CONTINUING S ALONG 26N96W INTO
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO TO NEAR 18N94W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 28N W OF THE FRONT TO INLAND OVER
MEXICO AND TO THE COAST OF TEXAS WITH CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR
ACTIVITY OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SW GULF S OF 23N W OF 90W.
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE NE GULF JUST S OF THE BIG
BEND AREA OF FLORIDA EXTENDING AN AXIS SW TO BETWEEN TAMPICO
MEXICO AND BROWNSVILLE TEXAS FORCING AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE GULF WATERS
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE W COAST OF FLORIDA BETWEEN FLORIDA BAY AND
CEDAR KEY. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W/CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OVER N BELIZE GIVING
THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN W TO SW UPPER WINDS AND GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120
NM S OF CUBA FROM 76W-81W. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE STILL EXTENDS OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM CENTRAL PANAMA TO NICARAGUA PROVIDING
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF A LINE FROM COLOMBIA
NEAR 11N75W TO BELIZE NEAR 17N88W. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE E CARIBBEAN
REMAINING RATHER CLEAR AGAIN TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A
PATCH OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A 90
NM RADIUS OF 15.5N67.5W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE NE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE W
ATLC AND COMBINED WITH A SHARP UPPER TROUGH IN THE W/CENTRAL
ATLC THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N59W 24N68W THROUGH THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE INTO THE CARIBBEAN ARE PRODUCING STRONG NE UPPER WINDS
OVER THE W ATLC W OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE UPPER TROUGH IS
SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 29N63W TO 25N70W.
THE UPPER TROUGH IS ALSO PRODUCING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 27N50W
TO THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W. THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED
BY A SURFACE RIDGE N OF 23N E OF 60W.

$$
WALLACE





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