[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 260001
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT IS CENTERED NEAR 16.4N 31.6W AT
25/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 505 MILES...815 KM...WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 29W-34W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 61W SOUTH OF 18N
MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. AN INVERTED-V LOW CLOUD PATTERN IS NOTED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN
63W-67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 57W-62W.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 7N26W 16N31W 10N40W 9N50W
9N61W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED ON THE SPECIAL FEATURES
AND TROPICAL WAVE SECTIONS...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 19W-23W...FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN
36W-39W...AND FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 49W-56W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN LOUISIANA NEAR 30N91W
TO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 25N96W 18N94W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE FRONT FROM 18N-25N BETWEEN
95W-98W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE FRONT ALONG
THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 89W-92W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO INLAND OVER S
MEXICO FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 90W-96W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OFF THE SW FLORIDA COAST NEAR NAPLES. MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR
29N87W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER TEXAS AND THE
W GULF...AND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF. EXPECT...THE STATIONARY FRONT
TO REMAIN STATIONARY FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. FRESH TO
STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 82W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 68W-73W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ENTIRE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA
EXTENDING 30 NM SOUTH. PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ARE ALSO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO GUATEMALA.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF
HISPANIOLA NEAR 21N72W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER IF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT...CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT
CONVECTION OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 31N63W 25N71W.
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS FURTHER E ALONG 26N58W 23N52W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-28N BETWEEN 51W-53W. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC
NEAR 27N65W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE S OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 60W-65W. ZONAL
FLOW IS N OF 20N AND E OF 55W TO W AFRICA. TWO UPPER LEVEL HIGHS
ARE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 11N47W AND 14N18W. EXPECT
T.D. EIGHT TO BE A WEAK FEATURE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA





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