[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 242348
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU SEP 24 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 27W SOUTH
OF 18N MOVING WEST ABOUT 15 KT. A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED ON THE
WAVE AXIS NEAR 14N27W. THIS SYSTEM SHOWS UP WELL ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND ON THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A BAND
OF DRY AIR AND DUST HAS WRAPPED AROUND THE NORTH...WEST...AND
SOUTH SIDES OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AND LOW. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 13N-18N
BETWEEN 26W-31W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING
W AT 20 KT. AN INVERTED-V LOW CLOUD PATTERN IS NOTED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS ON THE WAVE AXIS FROM 08N-13N BETWEEN 55W-58W.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 14N24W 9N40W 11N56W
10N62W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED ON THE TROPICAL WAVE
SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 14W-17W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 24W-28W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN LOUISIANA NEAR 30N92W
TO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 24N96W 18N94W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE FRONT TO THE MAINLAND AT 98W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO INLAND OVER S FROM
17N-20N BETWEEN 90W-94W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OFF THE SW
FLORIDA COAST NEAR NAPLES. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 30N90W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS OVER TEXAS AND THE W GULF...AND OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
GULF. EXPECT...THE STATIONARY FRONT TO REMAIN STATIONARY OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND
CENTRAL AMERICA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO
RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND CUBA. PATCHES OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM
PANAMA TO GUATEMALA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE
W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF 80W. EXPECT...CONTINUED
CONVECTION OVER THE N CARIBBEAN N OF 18N... AND OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 80W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT
CONVECTION OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM AN APPROACHING
TROPICAL WAVE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N63W 24N65W
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN
55W-63W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS FURTHER E ALONG 27N52W
21N55W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
23N-28N BETWEEN 50W-53W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 27N64W. ZONAL FLOW IS N OF 20N
AND E OF 50W TO W AFRICA. TWO UPPER LEVEL HIGHS ARE OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 12N45W AND 17N28W. EXPECT THE TROPICAL
WAVES TO BE THE DOMINATE FEATURES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA





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