[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W SOUTH OF
19N MOVING W AT 10 KT. A 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE WAVE
AXIS NEAR 12N. THIS SYSTEM SHOWS UP WELL ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND ON THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A BAND OF DRY
AIR AND DUST HAS WRAPPED AROUND THE NORTH AND WEST SIDES OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE AND LOW HOWEVER. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN
20W-25W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING
W AT 15 KT. AN INVERTED-V LOW CLOUD PATTERN IS NOTED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS WAVE SHOWS UP IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD IN
VISIBLE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE
AXIS FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 43W-45W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 19N-23N
BETWEEN 46W-49W.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 16N16W 9N26W 8N35W 12N47W
10N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 8W-27W...8N-9N BETWEEN
40W-42W...AND FROM 45W-53W BETWEEN 9W-12W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1016 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER SE LOUISIANA NEAR 30N91W. A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS S TO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N95W.
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO THE SW GULF NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO AT
22N98W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF
THE LOW AND FRONTS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 17N-21N
BETWEEN 88W-91W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER W CUBA W OF 80W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE SW FLORIDA COAST NEAR FT
MYERS. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
NEAR 27N90W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER TEXAS AND
THE SW GULF...AND OVER S FLORIDA AND CUBA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE FURTHER S
TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...AND THE STATIONARY FRONT TO REMAIN
STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND
CENTRAL AMERICA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OFF THE COASTS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA FROM
12N-17N BETWEEN 80W-84W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND CUBA.
PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO INLAND OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA PROM PANAMA TO GUATEMALA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
A RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. THE BASE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF 80W.
EXPECT...CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE N CARIBBEAN N OF 18N...
AND OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N63W 24N65W
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN
54W-63W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE TROPICS E OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 23N52W 16N56W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 57W-59W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 28N65W.
ZONAL FLOW IS N OF 20N AND E OF 50W TO W AFRICA. TWO UPPER LEVEL
HIGHS ARE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 14N50W AND 16N30W.
EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVES TO BE THE DOMINATE FEATURES OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA





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