[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 231805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19W TO THE
SOUTH OF 19N...JUST ANALYZED ON THE SURFACE MAP AT 23/1200 UTC.
A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 13N.
THIS FEATURE SHOWS UP WELL IN THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
COVER THE AREAS FROM 9N TO 13N BETWEEN 18W AND 21W. RANDOM
PRECIPITATION IS IN THE WATERS JUST TO THE EAST AND SOUTH
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 19W AND 24W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W TO THE SOUTH OF
20N MOVING WEST ABOUT 15 KT. THIS WAVE SHOWS UP IN THE LOW CLOUD
FIELD IN VISIBLE IMAGERY. THE WAVE IS ABOUT 250 NM TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE
COMPARATIVELY STRONGEST CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 21N TO
22N BETWEEN 48W AND 59W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS COVER THE
REST OF THE AREA FROM 17N TO 22N BETWEEN 43W AND 50W.

...THE ITCZ...

11N21W 8N28W 8N36W 10N43W 11N46W...INTO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA
NEAR 10N64W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 30W AND 37W...FROM 5N
TO 6N BETWEEN 39W AND 41W...AND FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 47W
AND 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR FLORIDA...TO CUBA...TO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS...INTO THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST...TO CUBA TO THE WEST OF 80W...
TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS...AND FINALLY
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. INDIVIDUALLY
SEPARATE AREAS OF CYCLONIC FLOW/TROUGHS MAKE ONE LONG CHAIN.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. THIS TROUGH
IS ASSOCIATED WITH WHAT WERE THE REMNANTS OF FRED. THAT LOW
PRESSURE CENTER HAS DISSIPATED FINALLY NEAR THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA
BORDER. SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST AND A LITTLE
BIT OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...AND IN CUBA TO THE EAST OF 80W.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH
OF 16N TO THE WEST OF 80W...IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE
THAT STRETCHES FROM THE FLORIDA EAST COAST WATERS TO THE ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ALSO ARE IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVING INLAND FROM 18N TO 23N
BETWEEN 93W AND 98W.

THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT HAS REACHED THE WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA...STRETCHING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO MEXICO
THE MEXICO COAST ABOUT 40 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 16N TO THE WEST OF
80W...IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS
TO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE THAT STRETCHES FROM THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST WATERS TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
COVER THE AREA FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
WATERS THAT ARE ABOUT 150 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...IN PUERTO RICO...AND FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN 63W AND
69W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE WELL-ESTABLISHED
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND TROUGH THAT EXTEND
FROM 28N65W TO 20N69W TO 12N64W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WELL-ESTABLISHED UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND
TROUGH EXTEND FROM 28N65W TO 20N69W TO 12N64W IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 25N TO 32N
BETWEEN 54W AND 64W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE GO FROM 24N
TO 27N BETWEEN 54W AND 56W AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
STARTS FROM A SMALLER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 26N56W
AND EXTENDS TO 19N58W. THE AREA OF 19N58W IS SURROUNDED BY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 56W AND
59W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N68W 28N64W 25N65W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG 50W/51W FROM 14N TO 22N MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT
DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 32N21W. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE
NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 10W AND 30W.

$$
MT




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