[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 13N43W.
THE LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES TO THE WNW NEAR 8 KT. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS N IF THE CENTER FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN
40W-44W. SCATTERED SHOWERS COVERS A LARGE AREA FROM 9N-20N
BETWEEN 36W-45W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. A SMALL
SWIRL IS EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 16N. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS W OF THE AXIS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 31W-33W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 95W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS
MOSTLY OVER SOUTH MEXICO AND IN THE E PACIFIC REGION WITH A
SMALL AREA OF INVERTED TROUGH IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. A LARGE
AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 88W-91W.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 6N20W 15N30W 11N50W 10N63W.
BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED ON THE SPECIAL FEATURES AND
TROPICAL WAVE SECTIONS...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 11W-16W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM S LOUISIANA NEAR
29N91W TO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N93W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. FURTHER E...SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM 30N-32N
BETWEEN 84W-86W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER S FLORIDA FROM
25N-27N BETWEEN 80W-82W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH IS CENTERED OVER MEXICO NEAR 20N100W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
HIGH IS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N81W. CONSIDERABLE
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT... LITTLE
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND
CENTRAL AMERICA. PATCHES OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 78W...OVER THE N CARIBBEAN N OF
18N... AND OVER SOUTH AMERICA S OF 12N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 20N66W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 60W-65W. EXPECT...
CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN CARIBBEAN
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE N BAHAMAS FROM 26N-28N
BETWEEN 77W-80W. FURTHER E...A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC FROM 31N70W TO 23N70W. AN EMBEDDED 1014 MB LOW IS ON
THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR 28N70W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 25-27N BETWEEN 69W-71W. A 1025 MB HIGH
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N41W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 30N27W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE
TROPICS NEAR 1N28W PRODUCING MAINLY UPPER LEVEL EASTERLIES S  OF
10N BETWEEN 10W-50W.

$$
FORMOSA






This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net