[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 190518
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS...AND GOES-12 SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC...AND METEOSAT-8 IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 13N40W. IT HAS BEEN MOVING
WESTWARD 5 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 36W AND
39W...AND FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 41W AND 43W. THE CHANCE THAT
THIS SYSTEM MAY BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS IS MEDIUM. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM
31N20W TO 24N29W TO 19N40W TO 16N44W IS ABOUT 300 NM TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE LOW CENTER.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W/27W TO
THE SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 18W AND
22W...AND FROM 16N TO 17N BETWEEN 23W AND 25W.

A TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND NOW IS
ALONG 90W/91W TO THE SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT.
THIS WAVE COVERS THE AREA FROM THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA
BEYOND WESTERN GUATEMALA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
THE SOUTHERN END OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC IS CLOSE TO
THE NORTHERN END OF THIS WAVE. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES FROM
EARLIER PRECIPITATION IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA HAVE WARMED.
A FEW CELLS OF SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.
ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE
15N80W LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER HAS
REACHED CENTRAL AMERICA.

...THE ITCZ...

14N17W 15N25W 13N28W 13N38W 11N44W 10N56W INTO NORTHEASTERN
VENEZUELA NEAR 10N63W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE
FROM 7N TO 10N TO THE EAST OF 50W...AND FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN
49W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO INTO THE EASTERN GULF...TO THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. DISORGANIZED AND
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE TO THE EAST OF 90W...AND ACROSS
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT STRETCHES
FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MEXICO BEYOND THE LOWER VALLEY OF TEXAS IS
PUSHING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM MEXICO AND TEXAS INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO TO THE WEST OF 92W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 15N80W...
ABOUT 200 NM TO THE EAST OF THE BORDER OF EASTERN HONDURAS
AND NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE WHOLE
AREA TO THE WEST OF 70W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ON TOP OF LAKE MARACAIBO AND ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN
EDGE OF THE LAKE...IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 13N TO THE EAST
OF 70W. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW IS RELATED TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS NEAR 22N60W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 24N TO THE EAST OF 86W
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH
OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 79W IN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 22N60W.
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 13N BETWEEN 50W AND 71W.
THE 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N68W IS THE
REMNANT OF HURRICANE FRED. A SURFACE TROUGH GOES FROM 30N67W
TO THE 1012 MB REMNANT LOW CENTER TO 22N68W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH...AND
FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 58W AND 61W UNDER THE LARGE-SCALE
CYCLONIC FLOW. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N73W 28N76W...
ACROSS ABACO ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS TO 24N79W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS COVER THE BAHAMAS FROM 24N TO 26N BETWEEN 77W AND 80W.

$$
MT



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