[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151746
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE SEP 15 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING
WEST ABOUT 20 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
JUST IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N/9N BETWEEN SIERRA LEONE AND
NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
5N-10N BETWEEN 13W-23W...AND FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 29W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N LOUISIANA NEAR 32N92W. A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO ALONG
30N92W 28N92W 26N97W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE
FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW GULF FROM
19N-20N BETWEEN 95W-97W. FURTHER E...SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM 29N-31N BETWEEN
84W-86W. THE GULF HAS MOSTLY 5-10 KT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS W OF
THE FRONT...AND 10-15 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS E OF THE FRONT. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
NEAR 23N88W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER FLORIDA
WHILE STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND S TEXAS.
EXPECT...THE FRONT TO BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ALSO EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE PRODUCING NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. FRESH TRADES ARE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE REACHING THE NE CUBAN COAST FROM 21N-22N
BETWEEN 76W-78W DUE TO A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND
BAHAMAS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE
W CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED S OF PUERTO
RICO NEAR 17N66W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM THIS LOW IS
PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE WINDWARD
AND LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 57W-63W. EXPECT...
CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1010 MB LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 28N73W. A WARM FRONT
EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW TO BEYOND 32N67W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO E CUBA NEAR 23N78W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM SE OF THE SYSTEM. A 1013 MB LOW IS
OVER THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 20N45W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE LOW FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN
46W-48W. ANOTHER 1014 MB LOW IS W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR
16N99W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THIS LOW
FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 29W-32W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N50W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
OVER THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 20N49W. A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE TROPICAL E ATLANTIC NEAR 17N29W.
EXPECT...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND THE TWO
SURFACE LOWS OVER THE E ATLANTIC BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER
PRODUCERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA





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