[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141747
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON SEP 14 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THIS IS
A LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE THAT IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA.
THE WAVE AXIS IS PRECEDING THE DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS
INDICATED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 17N16W THROUGH A 1014 MB LOW
NEAR 14N24W CONTINUING ALONG 14N30W 9N40W 9N61W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST
AFRICA FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 16W-19W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM 14N-16N
BETWEEN 25W-28W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N
BETWEEN 20W-24W...FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 30W-42W...AND FROM 9N-12N
BETWEEN 59W-62W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER E TEXAS NEAR 31N94W. A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR
30N86W AND CONTINUES SE TO S FLORIDA NEAR 27N80W. A COLD FRONT
ALSO EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO
ALONG 27N93W 22N96W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 87W-91W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM 29N-31N
BETWEEN 85W-88W. THE E GULF E OF THE TROUGH HAS MOSTLY
15-20 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS. LIGHTER WINDS ARE OVER THE W GULF. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER E TEXAS NEAR
32N95W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE NW GULF N OF 23N W OF 88W. AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER W CUBA NEAR 22N84W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER MOST THE GULF EXCEPT THE NW GULF WHERE
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS N OF 24N AND W OF 90W. EXPECT...LITTLE
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1016 MB HIGH IS CENTERED S OF CUBA NEAR 21N81W PRODUCING
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. SEE ABOVE. FRESH TRADES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND
CENTRAL AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 10N. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA HAS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER W CUBA NEAR 22N84W.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR
19N63W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS BETWEEN 12N-20N.
EXPECT...CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1010 MB LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N74W. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS SW TO THE N BAHAMAS AND S FLORIDA ALONG 27N77W 27N80W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SE OF THE
FRONT FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 65W-77W. A 1012 MB LOW IS OVER THE
TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 19N39W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 19N63W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
SE OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION E OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 55W-60W. AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 28N52W. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS OVER THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 20N44W. A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE TROPICAL E ATLANTIC NEAR 20N20W.
EXPECT...THE TWO SURFACE LOWS OVER THE ATLANTIC TO MOVE W AND BE
THE DOMINATE WEATHER PRODUCERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA





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