[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 141044
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W/63W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT.
THIS IS VERY LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE AND IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER SOUTH
AMERICA. WAVE AXIS IS PRECEDING THE DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE
MAXIMUM AS INDICATED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF THE WAVE S OF 12N.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 15N16W THROUGH A 1014 MB LOW
NEAR 14N24W CONTINUING ALONG 9N35W 8N43W 9N53W 9N61W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM
13N-18N BETWEEN 22W-28W INCLUDING THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-10N
BETWEEN 28W-46W. ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE ITCZ FROM 40W-50W AND FROM THE ITCZ N TO
15N FROM 50W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE N GULF FROM A
1010 MB LOW IN THE W ATLC ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR
MELBOURNE TO CEDAR KEY OVER PENSACOLA FLORIDA THEN OVER NEW
ORLEANS LOUISIANA TO A 1006 MB LOW N OF HOUSTON TEXAS...A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW ALONG 27N94W TO 23N96W. A STRONG
UPPER LOW IS INLAND OVER OKLAHOMA WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING S OVER MEXICO AND THE W GULF TO 25N W OF 89W WHILE AN
UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF ANCHORED NEAR
25N84W EXTENDING ACROSS S FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC. THIS SCENARIO
COUPLED WITH THE ABUNDANCE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE COVERING ALL
BUT THE FAR NW GULF IS GENERATING A BAND OF SCATTERED/HEAVY
SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED/NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM OF
LINE FROM THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE/YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N91W
ALONG 25N88W TO N GULF COAST NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI/LOUISIANA
BORDER. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60
NM W OF THE COLD FRONT AND ALONG THE COAST OF NE MEXICO.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NE GULF N OF 27N E OF 86W TO
INLAND OVER FLORIDA. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS TRANQUIL THIS
MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE SE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE W
CARIBBEAN N OF 16N W OF 70W WHILE AN UPPER LOW N OF VIRGIN
ISLANDS COVERS THE NE CARIBBEAN FROM HISPANIOLA TO THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. MOSTLY WESTERLY UPPER FLOW COVERS THE S CARIBBEAN.
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN
76W-81W INCLUDING JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. SIMILAR
ACTIVITY IS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N BETWEEN COLOMBIA
AND COSTA RICA DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ. OTHERWISE
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS REMARKABLY CLEAR AGAIN THIS
MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH 32N67W TO A
1010 MB LOW NEAR 29N75W CONTINUING W ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR
MELBOURNE AS A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE SE GULF OF MEXICO
EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC W OF 66W NARROWING ALONG 27N66W TO
BEYOND 32N58W. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 300 NM S OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY E OF 79W. AN UPPER LOW
IS N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 19N64W COVERING THE NE
CARIBBEAN. A SMALL BUT STRONG UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 29N52W
NARROWING THE UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 15N
BETWEEN 35W-47W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE
REGION NEAR 32N32W EXTENDING SW ALONG 30N38W TO 30N46W.
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE FROM 26N56W TO BEYOND
32N49W. THE REMNANTS OF FRED...A 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
19N37W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG WELL
REMOVED FROM THE LOW LEVEL CENTER WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM
20N32W 22N36W TO 20N40W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE E
ATLC FROM THE TROPICS TO BEYOND 32N ANCHORED NEAR 19N19W AND
CONTINUING TO ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY OVER THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.

$$
WALLACE






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