[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140525
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W/62W S OF 13N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THIS
IS VERY LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE AND IS NOW MOVING INLAND OVER SOUTH
AMERICA. WAVE AXIS IS PRECEDING THE DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE
MAXIMUM AS INDICATED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 17N15W THROUGH A 1014 MB LOW
NEAR 14N23W CONTINUING ALONG 8N31W 8N43W 12N57W 10N64W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF
LINE FROM 17N23W ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO
15N26W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 13N-17N
BETWEEN 22W-28W INCLUDING THE REMAINDER OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 28W-40W. ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ W OF 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE N GULF FROM A
1010 MB LOW OFF THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA NEAR MELBOURNE TO CEDAR KEY THROUGH PENSACOLA FLORIDA
THEN OVER NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA TO A 1005 MB LOW NEAR HOUSTON
TEXAS...A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW ALONG
27N94W TO 24N97W. A STRONG UPPER LOW IS INLAND OVER OKLAHOMA
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S TO 24N COVERING THE GULF W OF
90W WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
ANCHORED NEAR 23N85W EXTENDING ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC.
THIS SCENARIO COUPLED WITH THE ABUNDANCE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
COVERING ALL BUT THE FAR NW GULF IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE E GULF E OF
91W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND AND
WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
THE REMAINDER OF THE W GULF IS REMARKABLY CLEAR TONIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE SE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE W
CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 70W WHILE AN UPPER LOW N OF VIRGIN
ISLANDS COVERS THE NE CARIBBEAN FROM HISPANIOLA TO THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. MOSTLY WESTERLY UPPER FLOW COVERS THE S CARIBBEAN.
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 90 NM
ALONG THE COAST OF HAITI AND CUBA. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN IS REMARKABLY CLEAR AGAIN TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH 32N69W TO A
1010 MB LOW IS OFF THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA NEAR 29N78W WITH A
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING W ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR
MELBOURNE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN
THE SE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC W OF 70W NARROWING
ALONG 26N70W TO BEYOND 32N60W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO
GENERATE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND NW OF A LINE FROM CUBA NEAR 21N76W
TO BEYOND 32N58W. AN UPPER LOW IS N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR
20N64W COVERING THE NE CARIBBEAN. A SMALL BUT STRONG UPPER HIGH
IS CENTERED NEAR 29N52W NARROWING THE UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS
THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 15N BETWEEN 35W-45W WITH THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N35W EXTENDING SW
ALONG 30N40W THEN NW 32N46W. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE
FROM 26N56W TO BEYOND 32N51W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER
THE E ATLC FROM THE TROPICS TO BEYOND 32N ANCHORED NEAR 20N21W
AND PROVIDING THE SLY SHEAR OVER A 1010 MB LOW...THE REMNANTS OF
FRED...CENTERED NEAR 19N36W AND ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY OVER THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

$$
WALLACE





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