[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131751
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 93W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE
IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA/S MEXICO AND INTO
THE E PACIFIC REGION GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N TO INLAND
OVER THE YUCATAN.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 16N16W THROUGH A 1013 MB LOW
NEAR 14N21W THEN ALONG 9N30W 7N40W 11N55W 10W63W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE ACROSS THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 22W-26W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 35W-50W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM
9N-13N BETWEEN 58W-62W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE N GULF FROM N
FLORIDA NEAR 30N81W TO A 1007 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR PORT ARTHUR
TEXAS AT 30N94W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO THE
SW GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 26N93W 21N95W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH FROM 22N-29N BETWEEN 90W-93W. THE
CENTRAL GULF E OF THE TROUGH HAS MOSTLY 15-20 KT SOUTHERLY
WINDS. LIGHTER WINDS ARE OVER THE NE GULF. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER E TEXAS NEAR 33N95W.
CYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE W GULF W OF 88W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
IS OVER S FLORIDA NEAR 25N81W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
IS OVER MOST OF THE GULF E OF 94W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER N
MEXICO AND THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF N OF 20N. EXPECT...LITTLE
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRESH TRADES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. THE
ITCZ IS ACTIVE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IN ADVANCE OF A SURFACE
TROUGH. SEE ABOVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S
OF 12N. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA HAS
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR NEAR 20N64W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS N
OF 12N. EXPECT...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1011 MB LOW IS OFF THE GEORGIA COAST NEAR 31N78W WITH A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING W TO NE FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FURTHER S TO INCLUDE THE N BAHAMAS FROM
24N-31N BETWEEN 75W-80W. ANOTHER 1014 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 51W-55W. A 1018 MB HIGH IS JUST SW NEAR
26N59W. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS ALSO OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC ALONG 32N34W 29N40W 32N46W. A 1009 MB LOW IS OVER THE
TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 18N34W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS N OF THE CENTER FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN 33W-36W. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W
OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NEAR NEAR 20N64W. AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N50W. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 30N35W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH
IS OVER WEST AFRICA NEAR 19N15W. EXPECT...THE TWO SURFACE LOWS
OVER THE ATLANTIC TO MOVE W AND BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER
PRODUCERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA





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