[Tropical] Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary

[EMWIN Server]

ABNT20 KNHC 121748
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT SEP 12 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON WEAKENING
TROPICAL STORM FRED...LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND IS PRODUCING A
LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG MUCH OF
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE
FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS
THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  HOWEVER...THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS BEING ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM THE
WEST COAST OF AFRICA TO NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN
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