[Tropical] Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary

[EMWIN Server]

ABNT20 KNHC 112340
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI SEP 11 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON
RECENTLY-DOWNGRADED TROPICAL STORM FRED...LOCATED ABOUT 715 MILES
WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER COVERING MUCH OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS. WHILE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS MINIMAL...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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