[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 092341
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED SEP 09 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE FRED IS CENTERED NEAR 14.8N 33.3W AT 09/2100 UTC OR
ABOUT  595 MILES...955 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS MOVING NW AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 960 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120
KT MAKING FRED A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER.
ELSEWHERE SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 30W-35W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS IS OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 68W-72W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. THIS
WAVE REMAINS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OVER NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 84W-91W.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N15W 16N29W 12N40W 6N57W.
BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION
ABOVE...SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE
COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 1011N-13N BETWEEN 18W-21W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 43W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
5-10 KT SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE NW GULF N OF 25N AND W OF
87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OVER S
FLORIDA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS IS OVER THE SW GULF
FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 94W-96W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S MEXICO NEAR 18N100W WITH A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING E TO THE SE GULF. EXPECT...SCATTERED CONVECTION
TO BE OVER THE ENTIRE GULF FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE. FRESH
TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER CUBA BETWEEN 75W-84W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS OVER JAMAICA. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN
79W-82W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 70W-80W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL
HIGH IS CENTERED OVER BARBADOS NEAR 13N59W. EXPECT...MORE
CONVECTION OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 75W...
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N72W AND
EXTENDS SW TO THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 27N76W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A 1019 MB HIGH IS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N60W. THE TAIL END OF A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS FURTHER E ALONG 32N43W 26N49W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A WEAK 1014 MB
LOW IS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 21N63W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 61W-66W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC ALONG 24N41W 15N43W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 27N
AND W OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR
24N67W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE NW OF THE CENTER IS CONTRIBUTING
TO THE CONVECTION NEAR THE N BAHAMAS. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N51W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 21N48W. FURTHER S...UPPER
LEVEL HIGHS IS OVER THE TROPICS NEAR 9N44W...OVER HURRICANE
FRED...AND NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AT 18N23W. EXPECT FRED TO
MOVE NW AND BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER PRODUCER IN THE ATLANTIC
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA






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