[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 082333
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE SEP 08 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM FRED IS CENTERED ON 08/2100 UTC NEAR 12.1N
29.8W...OR ABOUT 410 MILES...655 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. FRED IS MOVING WEST AT 12 KT.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. PLEASE READ
THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT2/
WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 90 NM FROM THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 28W-32W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 62W FROM 8N-18N
MOVING WEST AT 15 KT. THE WAVE BROKE AWAY FROM A 1013 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NOW CENTERED NEAR 20N58W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS...HOWEVER ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NEAR THE LOW CENTER FROM 19N-20N BETWEEN 57W-59W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN ALONG 81W S OF 19N
MOVING WEST AT 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS IN THE
VICINITY OF JAMAICA FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 77W-79W.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 17N17W 15N25W 9N32W 7N40W 8N50W
10N61W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION ABOVE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN
24W-30W...AND FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 30W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
5-10 KT SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE NW GULF N OF 25N AND W OF
92W. SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER S FLORIDA...AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER THE SW GULF NEAR 19N95W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING E TO
THE SE GULF. THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER N FLORIDA
N OF 27N. EXPECT...SCATTERED CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE ENTIRE
GULF EXCEPT FOR THE NE AND N FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE. FRESH
TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER CUBA BETWEEN 75W-84W. ELSEWHERE...WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER PANAMA FROM 7N-10N
BETWEEN 78W-83W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 70W-80W. A SMALL
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER TRINIDAD NEAR 11N61W. EXPECT
...MORE CONVECTION OVER THE N CARIBBEAN N OF 18N...AND SOUTHERN
CENTRAL AMERICA S OF 12N OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N75W AND
EXTENDS SW TO SOUTH FLORIDA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 34N55W. THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING COLD
FRONT IS FURTHER SE ALONG 32N38W 28N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC ALONG 23N39W 15N41W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH FROM 22N-24N BETWEEN
37W-39W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE
W ATLANTIC N OF 27N AND W OF 75W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE
W ATLANTIC NEAR 23N68W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE N OF THE CENTER
IS PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN
70W-72W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
27N55W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
28N37W. FURTHER S...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE TROPICS NEAR
16N30W. EXPECT THE SPECIAL FEATURE TO MOVE NW AND BE THE
DOMINATE WEATHER PRODUCER IN THE ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA





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