[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 072338
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON SEP 07 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN IS CENTERED NEAR 12.5N 24.5W AT
07/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 160 MILES...255 KM...SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING W AT 14 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N
BETWEEN 24W-28W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W FROM 11N-21N MOVING
WEST AT 15 KT. A 1012 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS
NEAR 18N52W.  ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 48W-55W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W SOUTH OF HAITI MOVING
WEST AT 15 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS
WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 17N17W 14N23W 7N30W 8N40W 15N50W
11N63W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES
AND TROPICAL WAVE SECTIONS ABOVE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 28W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
5-10 KT SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A
GOOD AMOUNT OF CONVECTION OVER THE GULF. CLUSTERS OF WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 20N-27N BETWEEN
91W-97W...AND FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 85W-90W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE SW GULF NEAR
22N95W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NE TO THE NE GULF. EXPECT...
CONVECTION TO PERSIST OVER S TEXAS..THE GULF...AND S FLORIDA FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA FROM
18N-20N BETWEEN 68W-72W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER CUBA BETWEEN
76W-84W. ELSEWHERE...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
INLAND OVER NICARAGUA FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 84W-86W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W
OF 70W AND N OF 10N. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N66W. EXPECT...MORE CONVECTION OVER THE
N CARIBBEAN N OF 18N...AND CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N77W AND
EXTENDS SW TO SOUTH FLORIDA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC ALONG 24N37W 17N38W. A 1012 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED
ON THE TROUGH NEAR 21N37W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF
THE TROUGH. A 1020 MB HIGH IS ALSO OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
33N27W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC NEAR 23N69W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE N OF THE CENTER IS
PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN
65W-70W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
26N42W. FURTHER S...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE TROPICS NEAR
14N32W. EXPECT THE SPECIAL FEATURE TO MOVE W AND BE THE
DOMINATE WEATHER PRODUCER IN THE ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA





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