[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 071812
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN SEP 06 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21W/22W TO THE SOUTH OF
20N MOVING WEST ABOUT 15 KT. A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 11.5N. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 11.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 14W AND 16W. OTHER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 23W AND 26W.
ITCZ PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE WAVE. THE CHANCE THAT
THIS SYSTEM MAY BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS IS HIGH.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W/51W FROM 13N TO 21N
MOVING WEST ABOUT 15 KT. DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 52W AND 58W.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ONE CELL ARE WITHIN
A 30 NM TO 60 NM RADIUS OF 18N51.5W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W/73W TO THE SOUTH OF
HAITI MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ IS NOT DISTINCT TO THE EAST OF THE SPECIAL FEATURE
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 21W/22W...AND NOT DISTINCT TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE 50W/51W TROPICAL WAVE. THE BEST SEGMENT FOR
THE ITCZ AT THIS MOMENT IS 7N25W 7N35W 10N42W 13N48W. SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5N
TO 8N BETWEEN 25W AND 31W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE
FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA.
A BIT OF MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS IN
THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW HAS BEEN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH THAT NOW RUNS FROM 32N67W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS NEAR THE STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT SIX HOURS AGO WERE FROM MEXICO TO 20N BETWEEN
93W AND 95W. THE STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW ARE FROM
20N TO 22N BETWEEN 94W AND 96W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 22N TO 28N
BETWEEN 90W AND TEXAS AND MEXICO...AND TO THE NORTH OF 25N
BETWEEN 84W AND 90W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE NORTHERN GULF
COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 87W TO
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS NEAR 27N98W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 60W...AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA
TO THE NORTH OF 14N TO THE WEST OF 70W...
LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 14N TO NORTH OF 32N
AROUND A TROUGH FROM 32N67W TO 26N69W TO 22N72W TO 17N81W TO THE
BORDER OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS NEAR 14N85W. CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THE TROUGH COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 63W.
ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 27N70W IN THE BAHAMAS TO SOUTHERN
ANDROS ISLAND TO CUBA NEAR 21N78W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS
JUST TO THE EAST OF GEORGIA AND FLORIDA...ALONG 31N79W 28N79W
CURVING TO THE SOUTH FLORIDA COAST AND 24N82W IN THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N
TO 32N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM
CUBA BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 75W AND 80W...SOME EVEN COASTAL AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF FLORIDA. SOME SHOWERS ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA TO THE NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN HAITI AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS THAT COVER THE AREA FROM PANAMA NEAR
9N80W TO NICARAGUA NEAR 13N84W ARE IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW...BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THAT MOSTLY COVERS THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
TO THE SOUTH OF CENTRAL AMERICA.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS PRETTY MUCH THE
ENTIRE AREA THAT IS AWAY FROM THE CYCLONIC FLOW.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF 60W...
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH GOES FROM 30N37W TO 26N43W TO
22N54W 16N58W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 56W. ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN
A 30 NM TO 60 NM RADIUS OF 22N54W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALSO ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TROUGH BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 38W
AND 52W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM A 30N11W CYCLONIC CENTER TO A 29N22W CYCLONIC CENTER TO
30N31W. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS TROUGH.

$$
MT





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