[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 070003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN SEP 06 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19W S OF 17N MOVING W 15 KT. A 1008 MB
LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N19W. A LARGE SSMI
PRECIPITABLE WATER MAXIMUM IS NOTED ALONG THE COAST OF WEST
AFRICA W OF 25W BETWEEN 5N-19N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 17W-22W.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W S OF 16N MOVING W
15 KT. AN INVERTED-V LOW CLOUD SIGNATURE IS NOTED N OF THE ITCZ.
A SSMI PRECIPITABLE WATER MAXIMUM IS ALSO NOTED. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W S OF 20N MOVING W
15 KT. A 1012 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 16N47W. A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR HAS WRAPPED AROUND THE W SIDE OF
THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS HOWEVER NEAR THE LOW
CENTER FROM 16N-17N BETWEEN 47W-49W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W S OF 20N MOVING W 20
KT. SSMI PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOWS DRY AIR HAS MOVED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE S OF 15N. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N20W 8N24W 12N40W 8N60W.
BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES AND
TROPICAL WAVE SECTIONS ABOVE...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 16W-24W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 40W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
5-10 KT SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A
GOOD AMOUNT OF CONVECTION OVER THE GULF. CLUSTERS OF WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
TO THE SW GULF WITHIN 90 NM OF THE LINE 30N84W 22N95W. MORE
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER INLAND
FLORIDA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE SW GULF NEAR 20N94W
WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NE TO THE NE GULF. EXPECT...
CONVECTION TO PERSIST OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W...AND OVER S
FLORIDA AND W CUBA...FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER HISPANIOLA ALONG 22N72W
17N73W PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 18N-20N
BETWEEN 69W-73W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER CUBA
BETWEEN 74W-85W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS PANAMA FROM 8N-9N BETWEEN 78W-83W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER CUBA NEAR 22N80W. AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR
15N73W. EXPECT...MORE CONVECTION OVER THE N CARIBBEAN N OF
16N...AND CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N78W AND
EXTENDS SW TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER
THE N BAHAMAS WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 24N-27N
BETWEEN 76W-79W. A 1023 MB HIGH IS ALSO OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 29N55W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 27N69W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 24N50W. FURTHER S...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
IS OVER THE TROPICS NEAR 18N25W. EXPECT THE SPECIAL FEATURE TO
MOVE W AND BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER PRODUCER IN THE ATLANTIC OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA



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