[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 052345
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT SEP 05 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W S OF 22N
MOVING WEST AT 15 KT. A 1011 MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 17N.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 29W-32W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W S OF 20N MOVING
WEST AT 10 KT. A 1011 MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 15N. A GOOD
AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS AND N OF 10N SUPPRESSING
DEEP CONVECTION. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN
39W-44W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FURTHER S FROM 7N-10N
BETWEEN 38W-43W.

A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR BARBADOS IS ALONG 59W S OF 17N MOVING
WEST AT 10 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOWS A MAXIMUM
ALONG THE WAVE AXIS...HOWEVER NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N16W 18N24W 15N36W 14N41W
8N50W 6N58W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL
WAVE SECTION ABOVE...NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER W
AFRICA FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 12W-16W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM
8N-11N BETWEEN 30W-38W...AND FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 46W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W GULF ALONG 30N91W 25N95W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 90W-100W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN
86W-90W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER
PORTIONS OF INLAND FLORIDA. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND W CUBA. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER W CUBA NEAR
23N84W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W.
EXPECT...CONVECTION TO PERSIST OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W...AND
OVER S FLORIDA AND W CUBA...FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE VICINITY OF HISPANIOLA ALONG 22N72W
16N72W PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 17N-20N
BETWEEN 71W-73W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO
OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 62W-66W.
ELSEWHERE...A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...HONDURAS...AND
NICARAGUA IS FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 82W-86W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 18N
W OF 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN BEAR 15N74W. EXPECT...MORE CONVECTION OVER THE N
CARIBBEAN N OF 16N...AND CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N75W AND
EXTENDS SW TO CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR COCOA BEACH. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE N BAHAMAS AND THE W ATLANTIC FROM 24N-32N
BETWEEN 75W-80W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC
ALONG 29N64W 24N66W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. A 1023 MB HIGH IS ALSO OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 31N52W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER
THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 28N66W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE
E ATLANTIC NEAR 24N40W. FURTHER S...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER
THE TROPICS NEAR 17N55W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER W
AFRICA NEAR 19N18W. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVES TO TO MOVE W AND
BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER PRODUCERS IN THE ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA



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