[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 051716
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT SEP 05 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1645 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W FROM 10N
TO 21N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE IS ALONG
THE WAVE NEAR 16N. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N TO 21N BETWEEN 28W AND 32W. THE CHANCE
OF THIS FEATURE BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS IS LOW.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W/41W FROM 12N
TO 19N MOVING WEST 15 KT. A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 15.5N. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 39W AND 41W.
THE CHANCE OF THIS FEATURE BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS LOW.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W/58W TO THE SOUTH
OF 17N MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT EARLIER
WAS MAINTAINING ITSELF FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 58W AND 61W HAS
WEAKENED IN INTENSITY. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY
LINGERING PRECIPITATION ARE IN THAT AREA.

...THE ITCZ...

18N16W 16N28W 11N34W 9N45W 7N56W. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 10N31W 9N42W 7N48W 10N58W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A TROUGH COVERS
THE THE AREA TO THE EAST OF 90W. ONE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS ON TOP OF SOUTH FLORIDA. A SECOND CLUSTER
IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 28N TO 32N BETWEEN 76W AND 81W.
DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
COVER THE REST OF THE AREA THAT IS IN CYCLONIC FLOW. A MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS MOVING
ONSHORE...ON TOP OF MAZATLAN MEXICO...CONTINUING EASTWARD.
LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS UNDERNEATH UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM 102W IN MEXICO EASTWARD TO 90W.
THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW EVENTUALLY BLENDS WITH THE
CYCLONIC FLOW ALONG 89W/90W. ONE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS FROM 23N TO 24N BETWEEN 90W AND 91W. A SECOND
CLUSTER IS FROM 21N TO 23N BETWEEN 96W AND 98W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST OF 90W. A SURFACE
TROUGH WINDS ITS WAY FROM THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER...THROUGH
CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND BEYOND 30N77W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS PRETTY MUCH
MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW WITH A TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER...AND THEN
SHOOTS NORTHWARD ACROSS CUBA. THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS THE
REMNANT OF ERIKA IS ALONG 21N69W...THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE...
TO 15N69W. THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE 26N65W
ATLANTIC CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER GRAZES THE NORTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 66W
AND 72W...AND FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO TO 20N
BETWEEN 64W AND 68W. SOME OF THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES IN
THESE AREAS HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING WITH TIME DURING THE LAST
SIX HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N TO 14N BETWEEN 81W AND 83W AT THE
NICARAGUA COAST. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 11N TO 12N
BETWEEN 79W AND 81W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS TO THE EAST OF
A LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS ALONG 83W FROM
COSTA RICA TO 15N NEAR THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 20N
TO 33N BETWEEN 60W AND 75W...AROUND THE 26N65W CYCLONIC CENTER.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 22N TO 24N BETWEEN 59W AND
60W. POSSIBLE SHOWERS FROM 23N TO 30N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ONE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER NEAR 33N33W TO 28N38W TO 23N43W TO 15N46W

$$
MT



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