[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT41 KNHC 040232
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062009
1100 PM AST THU SEP 03 2009

ERIKA CONSISTS OF A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS ACCOMPANIED BY A SMALL
AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS FEATURE IS CURRENTLY
OBSERVED ON SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO RADAR. IN ADDITION...RAOB FROM THE
LESSER ANTILLES SHOW A STRONG MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH
ERIKA THAT HAS BEEN LEFT BEHIND OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
BY TRACING THE CIRRUS CLOUDS ON SATELLITE...ONE CAN CLEARLY SEE
THAT THE SYSTEM IS APPROACHING AN AREA OF EVEN STRONGER
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THESE WINDS WILL KEEP THE SYSTEM
DECOUPLED AND WILL LIKELY REMOVE ALL THE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THAT
COULD REDEVELOP.  BECAUSE THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME LESS
DEFINED...CONVECTION IS NOT ORGANIZED...SURFACE PRESSURES ARE
RISING AND THE WINDS HAVE DECREASED...ERIKA IS NOW CLASSIFIED AS A
REMNANT LOW...AND COULD DEGENERATE EVEN FURTHER INTO A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON ERIKA
UNLESS REGENERATION OCCUR.

THE REMANT LOW IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE ON FRIDAY WITH A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST.  THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA COULD STILL PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND PUERTO RICO
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      04/0300Z 16.8N  65.6W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 12HR VT     04/1200Z 17.0N  66.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     05/0000Z 18.0N  67.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     05/1200Z 19.5N  68.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     06/0000Z 21.0N  70.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     07/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



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